The war in Ukraine will be on
A relative ceasefire is established in the east of Ukraine. Pro-Russian fighters, but in reality, as we all understand, the groupings under the control of Russia, armed thereby and recruited with military servants are not moving forward. Ukrainian army detachments are not firing from artillery in the direction of Donetsk and other cities. Although Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently had expressed doubt that the fighters from the Ukrainian side is not so much the regular army, but the National Guard and the oligarchs-controlled groups. Perhaps, there is a grain of rational in what he said.
In addition, Ukraine, Russia and the European Union agreed to protract the implementation of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine until December 31, 2015. This protraction is necessary, as I understand it, first of all to Ukraine, because if the EU and Russia would start simultaneously exercise the customs duties driven by the logic of the agreement, then the first “loser” would be Ukraine. Of course, unpleasant moments are also expected to the other two sides with this regard. Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Štefan Füle started talking about the need to commence negotiations between the EU and the Customs Union. A brilliant idea. Why didn’t it occur to anyone’s mind in Moscow or Brussels, let’s say, two years ago? In the light of these slight positive shifts, there is also a negative. Last week, for instances, the EU, and later or by the “genealogy” prior to that, the US sanctions against Russia entered into force.
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Regardless of the fact that Russia’s policy toward Ukraine, in my opinion, is very objectionable, nevertheless, in this particular case, it is not clear for what or why the next package of sanctions is adopted. Sometimes, the impression is that the Brussels bureaucratic machine is so sluggish that it responds to the events late when this respond already loses its relevance. Politicians usually say that “making predictions is a thankless job,” but since I am not a politician, I would allow myself to make predictions – the Russian-Ukrainian war will resume. During one year, such a supply of hatred is accumulated in peoples that it would not be unloaded just like that. Especially, “unbridles” propaganda over Russian “official” channels, which is aimed at flaring up “patriotic” feelings, has not only contributed to Putin’s unprecedented growth of rating, but also to accumulation of negative energy and aggression, which should come out of somewhere.
Back in the last century, the French philosopher MauriceMerleau-Ponty wrote that in the modern wars the sides are fighting not for the settlements, but the moral law, the sides are trying to prove to each other that the hell that we made for you is more humane than the hell made by you. “For this very reason, writes Merleau-Ponty, now all the wars are waged in the name of peace.” Or, as it is now accepted to say, in order to “impose peace” on the opponent. Russians and Ukrainians still have a problem to prove each other which of the hells is more “humane”. And all of this will end up with the fact that Lugansk and Donetsk regions will also pass to Russia, and the economic situation there is going to be as sad as it is now in the Crimea. Instead, the rest of Ukraine would become a “non-friendly” country for Russia like Poland and Lithuania, and eventually, would join the EU and NATO. Whether it is a good solution or not, I do not know. Let’s leave it for the scientists to say.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
