According to the expert for Foundation of Strategic Research of France, Gaidz Minassian, “we have a strong army, but not a strong diplomacy.”
– First of all, how do you assess Serzh Sargsyan’s participation in the NATO summit in Wales, as well as mentioning of Armenia’s sovereignty and independence protection in the NATO declaration?
– Even if NATO is not engaged in the Karabakh settlement, NATO signifies all conflicts throughout Europe, therefore, being present in the Wales summit, I think, was important because Armenia today’s task is not only Karabakh, but also preservation of Armenia’s security, sovereignty and independence. Attending the NATO summit by the President of Armenia and voicing what should be delivered was a true decision. Unfortunately, the President did not attend the previous NATO summits, I think it’s worthy to attend all the summits. There are opinions that the wording in the NATO Declaration do not arise from Armenia’s interests. It is not so, because NATO is not involved in the NKR issue, NATO supports and protects the principles that are implied by the international law. Unless the Karabakh issue is solved, NATO member countries, driven by different interests, should recognize what is defined by the international law, in other words, they have to fix what was said in the declaration. There is a very important point in NATO declaration, on which Armenians need to focus – the preservation of sovereignty and independence of Armenia. In the framework of NATO, the meeting of presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan headed by the U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, was also important. Separate meetings of the President of France, Hollande, with the two presidents were also held. The more the President of Armenia has meetings, better for Armenia’s security and sovereignty, in general, for the future of Armenia. In any organization, OSCE, the Council of Europe, NATO, or the UN, which deal with security issues, Armenia’s President or the Foreign Minister must be present in various gatherings, even if the adopted declarations and statements are not in full conformity with Armenia’s interests. Everyone knows that the OSCE Minsk Group is dealing with the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, hence, there no need to be disappointed in terms of the statements and declarations. I must say that a meeting will be held in late October in Paris in the framework of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. It is an important meeting because after the tripartite meeting in Sochi and Wales, the intermediaries are expecting a political will from the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
– Was it appropriate voicing accusations to Azerbaijan and Turkey by Serzh Sargsyan using the NATO chair, especially given the fact that perhaps many countries do not particularly possess the nuances of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
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– Western countries are fully aware of the reality about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and have different opportunities to learn and clarify any issue. Hence, the remarks by Serzh Sargsyan were appropriate, they must be continued, and we also need to be more active to make Armenia’s demand reach the destination. It is a matter of style, quality and level. We have a strong army, like today’s Armenian army, but no strong diplomacy. Here, specifications need to be done. The kind of resistance is shown in the Contact line, likewise resistance should be displayed by the Armenian diplomacy, like for instances, Israel does. The world must see that there is no difference between the Armenian army and diplomacy. Whereas, now, such a difference is observed. Armenia has a powerful and fighting army. But is the Armenian diplomacy strong? I do not think that the same can be said for the Armenian diplomacy.
– There is information that the issue of Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Union would be eventually determined on 10 October. You signify the strong diplomacy by Armenia, but can it be applied if Armenian joins the EaEU? Even in that case, would it be possible to deepen our relationship with the West?
– First, we need to understand whether this Eurasian Union and the Customs Union exist. Kazakhstan and Belarus are doing everything to prevent Russia, and they are right. Armenia is in somewhat confused situation. They are playing with it, it is negative, Armenian people’s dignity should not be treated like that. With regard to Armenia’s sovereignty, it still needs to be clarified. Also, it needs to be found out whether this Union exists. Yet, even now it is not clear whether Armenia will join the Union on October 10. One gets the impression that everything is not quite clear and not guaranteed. But even if Armenia joins the Union, whether it would become a viable structure. Look at CIS, does it exist? No matter what union Russia established after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it does not have a long life. Now, Russia wants to establish a new union, but already, there are serious contradictions between the three countries. It’s hard to imagine the future of Armenia in a Union, which does not exist. I think it’s worth for Armenia to wait and see what happens in the end, and to understanding whether this structure in general would be viable. And the western countries should continue their cooperation with Armenia, there is no other option, because they are interested not only in Armenia, but also the South Caucasus region, including Iran, in any program that is associated with this region. The West has no other option. Both the United States and Europe have interests in the South Caucasus. The recent fresh example. Although they say that Armenia would join the EaEU on October 10, but at the same time, we learned that the EU will provide an aid of 140-170 million euros for implementation of reforms in 2014-2017. This means that even if Armenian joins the EaEU, they will continue cooperation with Armenia.
– Let’s go back to Armenia – Turkey relationships. Davutoğlu delivered a lengthy article, at Erdoğan’s inauguration ceremony, official Yerevan via Foreign Minister of Armenia extended an invitation to the President of Turkey to attend the Genocide Commemoration ceremony next year, on April 24. In response to Davutoğlu’s article, Edward Nalbandyan delivered a lengthy article. But the Turkish authorities stance is unchanged, as long as the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not resolved, Armenia – Turkey relations would not be regulated. This was said by Erdoğan on his visit to Baku. Under these conditions, do you consider any significant move by Turkey likely until April 24?
– Armenia and Turkey seems to be the couple that are destined to come close, but no one wants to do the first step.
– But Armenia make a step on every occasion, it is Turkey that hampers the possibilities of settlement of the Armenian-Turkish relations, putting forward the Karabakh issue and defending the position of Baku.
– Yes, it is so. On every occasion, Turkey announces that it is ready, for instances, to put forward Davutoğlu’s “just memory” strategy. In other words, Turkey is also striving to do something, but it does not know how. The have only a principle “as long as the Karabakh issue is not solved, nothing is impossible from our side.” Surely, there would still be suggestions by Turkey and Armenia, but I think that if there would be no significant progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, no step should be expected from Turkey. Turkey has different objectives: first, it defends the interests of Azerbaijan, it does everything for the international community not to give importance to this matter ahead to the 100th anniversary of Genocide, but I am sure that it will be the opposite. Turkey is seeking to strengthen its influence in the region. They were announcing “zero problems with neighbors”, but just the opposite happened. Turkey just shows that it is ready to do a step without any concession. My impression is that Turkey is dancing with Armenia, but it is a dance of one step forward and two steps back, moreover, such diplomacy is danced not only now, but also a very long time ago, since 1878, the Treaty of San Stefano and the Treaty of Berlin. The same as it is today, nothing has been changed, they dance the same dance, unfortunately. We already have this experience, but it is necessary to try solving the Turkish problem as a development window as there is a need for opening of the border for Armenia to become more strengthened as a state. But, it seems that Azerbaijan has a great influence on Turkey, and slowly-slowly, they are becoming, as Azeris are saying, one nation and two states. Then, why don’t we respond to Aliyev, saying that if you consider Azerbaijan and Turkey two states and one nation, then admit that Armenia is also one nation and two states with Karabakh?
– Given the realities mentioned by you, was it worthy for the Foreign Minister of Armenia to attend Erdoğan’s inauguration ceremony and invite him to Armenia?
– I think that it was right in the sense that Armenia’s President’s letter was publicly extended to Erdoğan. This was positive so that the Turkish side would not say later that no invitation was received from the Armenian side. But interestingly, who was the initiator of attending by the level of Foreign Minister? Serzh Sargsyan? If it was Serzh Sargsyan’s decision, then, did Nalbandyan have to leave? It is known that there are various problems within the governments, for instances, Nalbandyan is perceived as a pro-Russian figure. In my opinion, Armenia can participate in Erdoğan’s inauguration ceremony at the level of Deputy Foreign Minister or even at the level of Permanent Representative of Armenia of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, which is headquartered in Istanbul. We could even participate by this level taking into account Erdoğan’s offensive speech of “being an Armenian”.
Emma GABRIELYAN
