The theme of “Aravot” online “Face to Face” talk show is discussed by Artak Kirakosyan, Executive Director of the “Civil Society Institute” NGO, and Armen Badalyan, expert of political and election technologies.
Aram Abrahamyan – Will Gagik Tsarukyan come up with the claim of Serzh Sargsyan’s resignation?
Artak Kirakosyan – I have no idea, I do not know.
Armen Badalyan – I cannot say, because it would already be a prediction.
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A. A. – Are there any prerequisites that PAP will act as a classical opposition, in the Armenian sense, and implement a change of power?
A. B. – You know, only the calls or being a classical opposition is still not enough to implement a change of power, because if we view the experience of CIS, we will see that in many of the CIS countries, like in Belarus, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, in these countries the government is being formed, and ultimately, a change of power is performed by local forces. The other group: Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, and Georgia, the influence of the outside force is quite strong on the process of formation of the government, in other wore, Russia on Armenia, and the West on Ukraine and Moldova. As for Georgia, no, because Saakashvili eventually implemented reforms, and the government there changed through elections. Now, whoever comes through the elections, he will have a western vector, because the society changed, in other words, Georgia is coming off the phase when the influence of the outside force on the formation of the government was strong. Now about Armenia. We already mentioned that the classical opposition may claim for a change of power, but as far as it does not have, with regard to Armenia, the consent by the Russian government, they might be just calls.
A. A. – Do you agree that the outside force – Russia’s influence on the formation of Armenia’s government is so great?
A. K. – It is great, indeed. If I go back to your previous question, then I assume that Tsarukyan would again say general words that he is with the people and will fight for the people and so on. And the rest will interpret his words as they want. One would say that it means that tomorrow Serzh Sargsyan should resign; the other would say that they will achieve it through elections and so on. Of course, Russia’s influence is definitely there, but it has been changed a bit, in the sense that they had a bitter experience in Ukraine during Yanukovych’s defeat previously, they had a bitter experience in Abkhazia, and it seems to me that now they will be cautious. Anyway, Armenia is in their pocket with their today’s imagination, and excessive interference can only cause bad things.
A. A. – Orange revolutions, conditionally speaking, were against Russia, but if it be a revolution in our country, it would be in favor of Russia.
A. B. – There will be no revolution in out country, because the revolution requires certain conditions, there should be pretty strong passionate mass in the society, whereas there was such a mass in Ukraine represented by the Western Ukraine, often, by the population of Kiev. By the way, the people in the Eastern Ukraine are already passionate. Revolution requires necessary amount of money, because we know that Poroshenko himself has funded, as well as Kolomonsky, also funded from abroad, and there was also an outside support, for example, in the face of Nuland and others who were going to Maidan. These 3 conditions were necessary to implement the “orange” revolution. The passionate part of the society is one of the weakest conditions in Armenia, it is utterly, we can say, missing. If there is no problem with the money, after all, PAP has adequate amounts, I cannot say whether this outside influence is there or not, they have its support or not. So far, I do not see it, but it may be invisible at the moment. However, these appropriate conditions are missing to conduct a revolution, therefore, forget about the revolution.
The discussion in full:
Prepared by ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
“Face to Face” talk show series are released by the Open Society Foundations- Armenia. The views and analyzes found in this broadcast express the opinions of the participants, and are not approved by the Open Society Foundations-Armenia, or its Board. This broadcast is made available thanks to comprehensive financial support by the Open Society Foundations-Armenia, under the mass media support program, grant No 18624.
