According to Richard Giragosian, PAP by virtue of its oligarchic structure supports the affiliation to the EaEU process, whereas Ter-Petrosyan plays a dangerous and failed game, “flirting” with Russia
– Mr. Giragosian, recently an impression was left after the Paris meeting of Sargsyan-Aliyev that some pressures were made in the direction of Azerbaijan and Armenia’s posture seems to be more favorable, and official Yerevan considered these talks constructive. What impression did you get?
– First, let’s look at the Azerbaijani positive reaction to the Paris meeting. It’s actually putting a brave face on embarrassment. It’s really political posturing, because, actually it’s the Armenian side that came up the winner, for two specific reasons, first, the Minsk Group was trying in the Paris meeting to have Aliyev and Sargsyan issue a joint statement. The problem was Azerbaijan’s protest, and, therefore, the fact is Armenian foreign policy remains stronger, because yet again the obstacle was Azerbaijan. The second reason for Armenia’s stronger position was that there was more pressure on the Azerbaijani side from the French President over the arrest of civil society activists in Azerbaijan, and secondly, over Azerbaijan’s unfulfilled promises to allow confidence-building measures, and President Aliyev was forced to again promise in Paris to allow confidence-building measures. What is important though is that this Armenian victory or strength diplomatically was based more on Azerbaijan’s mistakes, and less on Armenian accomplishments.
– Since 2015, Armenia will be affiliating to the Eurasian Union. How possible do you think that within this structure there would be pressures over Armenia already by Russia pertaining to the Karabakh settlement process?
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– The clear answer is, definitely. This is only maximizing Armenian vulnerability and insecurity, because at any point Russia can demand and succeed in the establishment of a customs post between Armenia and Karabakh, between Armenia and Georgia, even between Armenia and Turkey if the border opens. Although this may not happen, the mere fact that Russia could threaten such a move at any time only increases their power over Armenia and Karabakh.
– The “non-governmental forces” presented in the Parliament of Armenia, with the exception for the one, do not dispute the move of the ruling government with regard to EaEU accession. In the political field, with regard to foreign policy, in this most essential issue regarding the society and the future of our country, having an identical position, and the political field being such stagnant, in your opinion, what is it fraught with risk?
– Well, this is proof of the dangerous and critical condition of having “no opposition” in Armenia, when Prosperous Armenia by virtue of its oligarchic interests, of course, supports the Eurasian Union, when Levon Ter-Petrosyan is playing a dangerous failed game to flirt with Russia. The “Heritage” party and Raffi Hovhannisyan are the only ones with a principled stand. It also shows the limits of the so-called coalition of the non-governmental forces, but that’s only political theatre, where the government lacks support for the Eurasian Union are within the general population, because it’s the population that will suffer most from the price increases and the economic penalty of joining the Eurasian Union, and this is where small- and medium-size businesses will suffer from being locked in the prison of the Eurasian Economic Union. Therefore, socio-economic instability is now clearly going to increase. And this area is where the government of Armenia is the weakest, especially, as the current prime minister is unable to even collect the taxes from the oligarchs, for one example.
– You mentioned about the “political theater”. So, can we conclude that Serzh Sargsyan at the end of his second tenure would like to hand over the government to “non-governmental forces”, who also sees the future of Armenia in the EaEU.
– No. On the one hand, the Armenian president and government should not be blamed for the absence of an opposition, nor should the Armenian president or government be credited or complemented with the state of the so-called opposition. The two reasons for this sad political theatreare first because these political figures have passed their expiration date, like milk, the second reason is that their political tactics no longer work. They’re pursuing politics as a hobby, not as a professional campaign. What this means is that there is more expectation and more space for the emergence of a new opposition force. Such as, for example, Nikole Pashinyan and the “Civic Contract.”
– Mr. Giragosian, how can Armenia not be vulnerable in its relationships with the EU under the EaEU affiliation, given the fact that the European diplomats assure that the relationship with Armenia will develop?
– Fortunately, there is a degree of sincerity and commitment in both Yerevan and Brussels to salvage the relationship, and hopefully, there will be enough left over after our surrender to Russia’s Eurasian Union.
Emma GABRIELYAN
