Khachatur Kokobelyan and Zaruhi Postanjyan about the possible scenarios in Russia and the EaEU
Recently, parliamentary hearings were held at the National Assembly regarding the Treaty of the EaEU membership. These hearings were quite passive, because among the MPS, only Khachatur Kokobelyan and Zaruhi Postanjyan expressed against the EaEU membership, opposing the government members that the EaEU is a paradise for Armenia.
In this regard, in the conversation with “Aravot”, leader of “Free Democrats” party, Khachatur Kokobelyan, said, “We were supposed to hold parliamentary hearings not as of today. Today, there is one obvious fact, almost all the speakers, except for the technical aspect of this agreement of how many chapter or pages, etc. it consists of, we did not even try to go close to the content. We did not talk, in general, about which goods could become expensive, what risks it might bring and how Armenia might suffer associated with the sanctions applied in Russia. We did not talk about the fall of the ruble in general, when even the adequate Russian analysts say that Russian economy is moving towards “collapsing”, we did not talk as to how our business entrepreneurs might be interested in it as a market. I do not know any real business entrepreneur in Armenia who now is not concerned about it. The Russian market is not attractive to us, because it is not profitable even for winemaking. After devaluation of the Russian ruble by 33 percent, it is clear that they will not pursue profit rather than enter the market with a loss. So far, the government of Armenia does not have the answer to these questions. If it has, it would not voice them.”
According to Khachatur Kokobelyan, in addition that this agreement is anti-constitutional, in terms of purely economy, we are going to a Union, with which we do not have a clear analysis of what we can be deprived of and what we can gain. “No one is reluctant to voice that in case of affiliation to this Union, what kind of sharp reduction of foreign investment to Armenia will happen. No foreign investor would like to make investment in a market, which is not an unclear, but a very clear market that goes to collapse. We would also suffer from the sanctions that are applied against Russia”.
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Khachatur Kokobelyan said that he has read the EaEU Treaty very carefully and has noticed a lot of controversial issues. “There is a very big and controversial issue related to quota in the market. If you or any citizen would be willing to import a large quantity of, for example, “Samsung” telephone to Armenia try to export his business to Russia, he cannot do it, because all branches are quoted. They have taken the number of population into account, but it also speaks to the fact that it is not a free economic environment for us, but an obstacle. In other words, for the Armenian businessman to be able to sell goods in the Russian market larger than the quota in volume, he must imports the goods at sharp and dramatic high prices. In other words, he is compelled to be engaged in this business in the Russian market or in another EaEU member country rather than in Armenia. I do not think there is a field for which this agreement solves a problem. The most dangerous issue is the issue of the arms and weapons. The weapons, which are manufactured by EaEU countries, for given case, Russia and Belarus, the import for all other weapons to Armenia will general a customs duty problem. Today, Armenia also imports weapons from China.” Khachatur Kokobelyan assured that the EaEU Treaty is not a beneficial agreement for Armenia, moreover, it is not driven from the interests of Armenia. “This is purely a political decision, if not, a verdict”.
During the parliamentary hearings, the Deputy Foreign minister Shavarsh Kocharyan assured that at any moment, Armenia can write an application and withdraw from the EaEU membership a year later by paying 2 million dollars. In other words, the EaEU membership is not irreversible. “Heritage” party MP Zaruhi Postanjyan, in the conversation with us, assured that it is just said for saying, no state would be allowed to withdraw, no matter they wish to. “There are truly more than 2 million KGB agents in Russia. The Union will not be established, I am sure, because Russia’s economic situation by all analysis and predictions is hard. Putin has commenced an irreversible process, which is evil for Russia, and then for the rest. When a Union is destroyed, it also causes wreck to other Unions. And here is the problem of how much this whole process would affect us. The problem is not only with the expenditures. If you are a state under the international commitments, it is impossible for other countries that want to integrate into it, these sanctions would not affect them. It seems like now, the whole capital flees from Russia, the same will happen to Armenia. Our, still not established annexation of the Union in the next 1-2 years will cause losses to us, not to speak about that we have security a problem, and we have a problem of buying weapons from other countries, apart from Russia. And to ignore the second global economy, China, is a big mistake. You need to be mobile. Your traditional ally, in the past few years, has already betrayed you. I think that our only ally are our armed forces.”
Zaruhi Postanjyan told a scenario that Russian pro-Europeans might stand up and in the next 1-2 years, would turn Russia towards Europe. To our question of how this is possible, Khachatur Kokobelyan replied, “I do not think it possible. However, I consider another scenario possible that generally, the current Russian regime, today’s authorities do not function adequately to the interests of Russia, which speaks of the fact that it is bound to have its end. In Moscow, the Russians should go mad and say, “come on”. Here, they are carrying out revolution not from outside, but inside. They have this feature. They have an internal rebellion.”
Hripsime JEBEJYAN
