We have to wait for the upshot
As I understand, countries enter into an agreement with each other on establishing a Customs Union in order to ensure a free mobility of goods inside this Union, without any customs border and controls. It should be beneficial to member countries, and just in the theory, it really contains huge benefits. But if there is not free mobility of goods, then what the Customs Union means. “Our” problem in the Customs Union arose because Russia, in response to the Western sanctions, decided to impose sanctions against the EU and a number of other countries, banning the import of the agricultural products thereof. The entire matter is that if there is already a Customs Union, then you cannot make such a decision without your partners: in partnership with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Either you should convince these countries to join your sanctions, or to announce that the activities of this Union is frozen until normalization of the problems with the West.
Now, it appears that Belarus and Kazakhstan have not joined the sanctions, and Russia is obligated to inspect, particularly, the Belarusian goods at the border. If Belarus, let’s assume, buys Canadian meat (which, of course, has become cheaper because of the embargo) and uses it for making sausage by selling it to Russia, is it a Belarus or Canadian sausage? Or, makes juice out of Polish apple. Or, re-exports Polish apples. How to prove that it is Polish and not Belarus apple? Thus, we can understand both Putin, who instructs to inspect the goods and if in doubt, do not allow it to his country, and Lukashenko, who expresses heated discontent for Russia’s such a move. Belarus is not Armenia, which Moscow can bend to any direction. And the matter here is not about Lukashenko’s some exceptional talent or “iron will”.
It is enough to carefully look at the map to be sure how different our situation is compared with Belarus. In addition to Russia, this country has borders with Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Latvia. Thus, Belarus, geographically, is not a European country with a “mentality” like ours (moreover, suspicious) and be surrounded on three sides by Russia’s “ill-wishers,” with which it is reluctant to spoil relations, especially economic. This country also has the chance to “turn” to the direction of these countries, politically. Lukashenko wants a very high price from Putin for “not being turned”. And would still want.
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It’s another question whether Putin or Russia’s next leader would be ready to constantly pay this price. It seems to me, not, because a project like EaEU enters into a deep contradiction with common sense and cold calculations. Only ambition are not enough here. Such an integration is a wonderful thing, but it is possible based on the wealth of integrated countries and the legitimacy inside them. If a law does not clearly function in the member states, then the rules of the game would not work in the relationships between the countries, too. Especially when, as I already mentioned, these rules are arbitrarily and unilaterally decided by Russia and it does not consider appropriate to inform its other partners of the Union about them. Plus, of course, the mentioned three (or four) countries are not rich, the likelihood of “dropping each other” is very high. So, if Russia, apart from political “global” ambitions, has also set a purely pragmatic economic to defend its own market, then it cannot do it through the Customs Union.
Armenia’s participation in this, initially failed plan, I think, would not produce benefits to us, at the minimum. If everything was within the rational calculation, then we could convince Russia to “quit” us, there is no use from us. Although, there are definitely people in the Russian elite, who persuaded and persuade Putin to completely abandon this crazy project. But the Russian president, as I understand, is adamant. In this case, we have to wait patiently until the EaEU-CU project dies its “natural death” and at the best, becomes a “club” like the CIS. I think we would not wait long.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
