Vahagn Khachatryan reverses economist Ashot Tavadyan
Doctor in Economics and Professor Ashot Tavadyan, on November 29, in the interview with the journalists at “Hayq” Analytical and Information Center, referring to Armenia’s affiliation to the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU), presented such advantages that if we do not join the EaEU, one can think that Armenia would be destroyed. Mr. Tavadyan said, “By entering into the Eurasian Economic Union, we got a 30% decrease in gas prices.” “In fact, Mr. Tavadyan does not represent any serious calculation or justification,” such an opinion was expressed by ANC member and economist Vahagn Khachatryan, in the conversation with “Aravot”.
Mr. Khachatryan, in response to Tavadyna’s statement, reminded that 20 % of “ARG” share was sold to “Gazprom” and the famous gas agreement was signed in last December, whle Armenia commenced its active operation towards the EaEU accession this year. “The gas agreement clearly defines that the RA consumers will receive gas from “Gazprom” at an average price for Russian citizens, in other words, it is obvious that the EaEU accession has nothing to do with the gas price, allegedly, they are doing a favor to us and have made a 30 % decrease. In other words, if it were not for this 30 % reduction, now, the gas price for us would be 500 USD, I must say that the Armenian consumers cannot afford or do not have so much purchasing capacity to consume gas for 500 dollars. Given arguments are not acceptable economically. It would be more correct to answer why the gas is as twice expensive when reaching the Armenian consumer.”
The other profitable reason for Armenia’s accession to the EaEU, Mr. Tavadyan mentined, “Russia promised to invest 2 billion to Armenia which is delayed because of the sanctions against Russia. The investments are definitely going to be, just a bit delayed.” “This should not also be accepted as a substantiation allegedly the EaEU would ensure these investments. The investments to Armenia have nothing to do with it. It depends on Armenia’s domestic situation. If the situation is good, there would be investors, if not, not. Having investments has nothing to do with which union you affiliate. If it were the case, then there should be no shortage of investors in Russia, given the attractiveness and the resources. It could be brought more serious substantiations for EaEU membership,” mentioned Mr. Khachatryan.
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Economist Ashot Tavadyan mentioned another advantage for joining the EaEU: Russia will provide a loan of 270 million dollars for upgrading the Metsamor nuclear power plant (NPP). Vahagn Khachatryan observes that Russia actually is the most interested in this industry. Russia has sought to solve the problems of development of nuclear power in different countries. But soon, the term of ANPP’s operation is expiring, and it is impossible to re-operate it without any technical substantiations. Mr. Khachatryan said that it would be much more beneficial and advantageous for Armenia to be focused on renewable energy, and even if we get a loan, then it should not be directed to ANPP. “I’m for closing the nuclear power plant in 2017, and it would be better not to take the loan because we have a surplus of energy, our energy resources are more than the available demand. And if the government is going to take a loan, it would be better to invest it in the renewable energy sector, this becomes more affordable every year, and in the end, we will get rid of dependence, this loan can be used for the construction of a thermal power plant. ”
Mr. Khachatryan urged the population not to fall into misunderstanding that by saying that joining the EaEU, favorable conditions are created for Armenia. According to Vahagn Khachatryan, it is from the same substantiations by Tavadyan that the EaEU would ensure a 4-4.5 % GDP growth to Armenia. “There cannot be such a thing. Recently, the finance minister was saying that there would be a 1.5-2 % extra growth. There is no such thing, in reality, there is no serious professional estimates on what our accession to the EaEU would provide, let’s say, how much the prices would increase in 2015. There is no significant estimates about how the joining to the EaEU would impact on the macroeconomic environment. In one place, they say, 4-4.5 % if the Abkhazian railway is opened, if the Iran-Armenia railway works, if the North-South road works. If their estimates are done by “ifs”, they can even say by 20 %. The growth mentioned by them will never be true in the real life. We would not have an extra GDP growth in the near future,” said Mr. Khachatryan. He is sure that the same can be said about the EU Association Agreement, simply, in this case, according to Mr. Khachatryan, they were saying that in the next 15 years, there would be a 1.5 % additional growth. “In fact, the country’s development potential is inside our country, no one from outside would give potential to us, if we do not use our inside potential, the outside influence is zero. It would be right if they conduct a macroeconomic analysis and then present what the EaEU would give to us.”
Nelly BABAYAN
