If a referendum is held in Armenia on the EaEU membership, what would be the results, asks the former ambassador of Poland to Armenia
September 3 is the people’s choice
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Poland to Armenia, Zdzisław Raczyński, who completed his mission in Armenia, acquitted Serzh Sargsyan’s decision on September 3 regarding the accession to the EaEU, however, it is interesting to know whether there is still confidence left in the western “backstage” in Armenia’s government authorities, as after conducting quite effective and intensive talks with Europeans for almost three years, suddenly it turned out that Armenia would not sign the EU Association Agreement. “But why suddenly? I am surprised that you’re surprised. In June of 2013, Serzh Sargsyan was in Warsaw, he was asked a question at the press conference and he clearly said that Armenia cannot make any move that would be in contrary to the interests of Russia. I was already clear to me that Armenia would not sign the EU Association Agreement because Russia was against it. In October- November of 2012, Russia had already clarified its plans. Therefore, I was surprised seeing people surprised. What is surprising here? Everything was clear, the ally had said that it is contrary to its interests, and there is no reason here to infuriate, though I understand the citizens of Armenia, who have their own views on this matter, let them express their attitude, let them defend their rights and fight for them. I’ve always been of the opinion that it was not a decision made in one day or one month and one year, but a decision of decades. The officials exist today, but not tomorrow, what is important is the society, what vision and what dreams it has. Now, you would conduct a referendum on the question of whether Armenia should affiliate the EaEU. What would be the results..?” asks the ambassador. Note that the majority of the society would vote in favor of the EaEU. “Well, then, what are you talking about? This is the outcome of the development of this country. This is the people’s choice.”
Russia should not be underestimated
Our country is tied with Armenia’s strategic ally Russia with thousands of threads, now Russia, to put it mildly, is not in a good shape. Can Russia’s economy leave the war of Western sanctions with less losses, and in general, has the EaEU a political potential? “No one knows what the EaEU is, we know what it should be, we know the countries’ orientations, in fact, they are significantly different from each other. Russia views the EaEU as a political entity, Kazakhstan does not recognize this structure as a political unit, it considers it as an economic unit. There are different positions even between the CSTO member states with regard to Ukraine. Many say that it is a plan aimed at return of the Soviet Union. I do not believe it, because it is unfeasible, Russia does not have the potential to create something like this Union. As for the economic factor, we do not know what are the basis of the EaEU to work, if it is established, it would also be an interesting partner for the EU with one condition – in the event of a dialogue between Russia and the West,” mentions the former ambassador to Armenia.
During the years worked in Armenia, the Ambassador has thoroughly studied Russia’s economy. “It is a huge country with enormous potential, no need to underestimate Russia, but the Soviet Union was a much more powerful giant. Of course, Russia cannot win in any economic war, this is an issue of different capacities and capabilities, but the loss, although Russia loses more than the West, however, is bilateral. We cannot acknowledge the annexation of the Crimea, yes, there were Russians living there. So what? Many people are living in Europe, too, in different places, but it does not mean that we must shut down the borders, it is totally a suicide, it is the politics of the 19th century and not the 21st century. The difference is that Russia is playing geopolitics, while Europe – postmodern politics. Therefore, Merkel once said that Putin is living in a different reality, he did not mean that Putin is inadequate, but that he thinks differently, we are guided by other standards. In other words, imagine if we now talk about what is the shape of the color or what is the odor of the music.” The ambassador hopes that at least a confidence will be formed between the West and Russia, as it is an important factor for the political dialogue. “What will come out of the EaEU? Let it first start walking, it was not even born yet, it is one in the plans.”
Younger generation has no nostalgia for the Soviet Union
How long can Russian presence be strengthened in our region, particularly, in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Ambassador Raczyński notes that any neighboring country, if it is huge, has an influence on the process from the outside. “Russia is even physically present here. There is a Russian military base in Gyumri. I think Russia is strengthening its presence also economically. However, a younger generation is growing up that has no nostalgia for the Soviet Union. Russia perhaps is a very attractive place for many to work, with attractive culture. So what? There are many of such countries in the world… It seems to me that when the Roman Empire collapsed, perhaps many in Iberia or the Franks were longing for this period for centuries. This is a normal process, and there is nothing surprising. But Russia’s presence and influence may vary. Russia either can contribute to establishment of peace and stability, help newly established countries to stand firm, or would keep them in submissive role, and would use its presence only for its national interest. I would illustrate not so much successful example, like in case of children, if you want them to become independent, you help them, but give freedom.”
Emma GABRIELYAN
