Will Armenia join the sanctions against Western countries by acquiring new enemies?
The lower house of parliament of Russia, the State Duma, almost unanimously ratified Armenia’s accession Treaty to the Eurasian Economic Union. Leonid Slutsky, Head of Commission on CIS Affairs, said that all controversies related to Nagorno-Karabakh have been resolved, and Armenia has joined the Eurasian Union by internationally recognized borders. Referring to voting for Armenian accession to the EaEU Treaty, Oleg Lebedev, representative of the “United Russia” party, noted, “In recent years, no law has been passed by Armenia’s parliament with such virtually unanimous vote.” Thus, Armenian will officially become a member of the EaEU as of 1 January 2015.
Leaving the expected variety of financial issues aside and continual grievances of the leaders of Belarus and Kazakhstan by Russia that already arise on the way to the EaEU accession, today, the issue of sovereignty of running a foreign policy by Armenia has become important. Moreover, Armenia often supports Russia at the international structures in the event of passing this-or-that resolutions. Will Armenia’s authorities that announce that they are ready to deepen relations with the EU and the West be able to run this independent policy in practice?
Yesterday, a remarkable statement was voiced by Russian authorities. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov mentioned that Moscow does not rule out the possibility that under the Customs Union, there might be a necessity to counter the Western sanctions against Russia. “The normative legislature of the Customs Union enables its participants to undertake joint moves of commercial character in the event of exerting economic pressure over any member of the Union by the third countries. However, at present, the issue of implementation of these activities are not on the agenda of the Customs Union. Nonetheless, we do not rule out that such a need may arise in the future.”
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It’s hard to definitely say that Russia’s today’s government authorities, however, would be wise and would not provoke the allied countries to confrontation with Western countries. The West-Russia confrontation is on the level, on the degree of unpredictability that nothing can be excluded. Therefore, in the event of such process of the events, Armenia may appear in an additional isolation. On the one hand, Armenia is blocked by Azerbaijan and Turkey, on the other hand, in the result of pressures by Russia, Armenia may join the sanctions against the Western countries, thus, as they say, by acquiring new enemies. This would be perhaps the most negative thing that Armenia can afford. Here, we must take into account the recent contacts between Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. In other words, Armenia’s neighboring countries will appear on one side, and Armenia under Russia’s arm, isolated from the world. Now let’s turn to Armenia’s neighbors’ plans. Foreign Ministers of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan, recently, talked about the regional conflicts. This was the Foreign Ministers’ regular fourth meeting.
“Armenia must take cleat steps to regulate the available problems in the relations with its neighbors,” announced Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu in Kars, hoping that Armenia would begin cooperating with the regional countries. Turkey’s foreign minister, however, emphasized that official Ankara recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Georgia. “The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be resolved on the basis of international agreements,” mentioned Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia Tamar Beruchashvili claims, “Kars meeting may have a vital importance in countering the available threats in the region.” The heads of foreign policy ministries of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan discussed also the implementation of joint infrastructure projects, particularly the process of Baku-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway bypassing Armenia. In fact, the ministers of the three countries, addressing regional conflicts, stated that Tbilisi, Baku and Ankara do not have particular controversies on this matter.
Çavuşoğlu mentioned that there are multilateral relations between the three countries, and in this regard, he has pointed out the “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan” pipeline, “Anatolian” gas pipeline and TANAP projects, emphasizing that Armenia was left without them. Georgia and Turkey had agreed to hold annual meeting of the High Level Cooperation Council, which will be chaired by the prime ministers of the two countries. The decision was taken by the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister of Mevlut Çavuşoğlu in the results of the meeting with Georgian Foreign Minister Tamar Beruchashvili. In addition, the recent Russo-Turkish high level talks were also impressive. The new gas line to be built instead of “South Stream” gas pipeline, which should reach from Russia to Turkey, can be called as a “Turkish Stream,” recently announced Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. “By the offer of the President Putin, we decided that the new “South Stream” may be called as a “Turkish Stream.” It will run from Russia to the border with Greece by the territory of Turkey underneath the Black Sea. Turkey and Europe will take as much gas as they need it. Thus, Turkey will turn into an energy hub for the whole region.” Note that Russia refused the “South Stream” gas pipeline project on December 1, when after the talks with Erdoğan, Putin made a surprise statement about it. Ankara, of course, the construction of TANAP as a priority, but it has appeared in a favorable condition. Turkish foreign minister, after the meeting with foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Georgia, mentioned that the construction of TANAP is a priority for Turkey. “We will consider and estimate Vladimir Putin’s offer on a new gas pipeline through the territory of Turkey, but Turkey’s priority is the TANAP project.”
Taner Yildiz, Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, in his turn, added that by 2035, the EU gas demand will reach 700 billion cubic meters of the current 550 billion cubic meters. “Europe will try to cover its needs by various projects. It might be the Israeli and Cypriot gas, Iranian and Turkmen gas, as well as Azerbaijani and Russian gas.” The partnership around Armenia is at its height, but Armenia being isolated from regional projects cannot afford lavishness to be isolated now from the Western countries by Russia’s pushing and pressure.
Emma GABRIELYAN
