Today, some news sites circulated a rumor spread out several months ago, which refers to giving 3 regions of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan: Akn (Ağdam), Varanday (Füzuli) and Jrakan (Jabrayil). Today, hartak.am and another website published the Azeri military expert and military journalist Uzeyir Jafarov’s statement, which 168.am website had published it still in June 30, 2014. “Hartak”, exactly in the same way as it was written in 168.am last year, without changing any word or a comma, published the material, “Azerbaijani ANS PRESS reported that the Azeri military expert and military journalist Uzeyir Jafarov had stated that “the return of the three regions adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh is possible.” Jafarov detailed that the matter is about Akn (Ağdam), Varanday (Füzuli) and Jrakan (Jabrayil) regions. Jafarov believes that Azerbaijan is ready to join the Eurasian Economic Union for the return of the territories, and herewith, enter into the “game”.
Jafarov hurried to emphasize that it is only his opinion (an assumption), adding that a big role in the establishment of this deal is attributed to Russia. In his words, Russia wants to deploy its peacekeeping forces in the region in 2015. Why now, under this domestic political tense situation in Armenia, such rumors have begun to circulate again, and whether this could be connected to the internal situation created recently in our country – the RPA-PAP “conflict”. In response to these questions of Aravot.am, Founder and Chairman of “The Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs” Styopa Safaryan said that no one can deny that since last year Russia is trying to win the favor of Baku for inviting it to the Eurasian Economic project. One of the greatest proofs of this circumstance, according to Safaryan, is that the Russian officials after the Astana meeting in Baku last year and generally onwards have announced that of course it would be absolutely stately if Azerbaijan was somehow involved in the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). “The matter is about that if Azerbaijan does not sign the agreement for full membership like Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia, but EaEU-Azerbaijan specific relationships, even though like Russia, the EaEU signs agreements with other countries in various. In summer, Russia’s Minister of Economy Alexei Ulyukayev announced that having so much great commodity turnover, in other words, so many businesses and investments, Azerbaijan’s membership to the EaEU would not be so odd. Such serious “messages” have been sent at the level of government members. And we all know what Baku request for it, and it is Artsakh or its territories, consequently, circulated rumors, indeed, are close to the truth.”
Mr. Safaryan noted that last summer, Azerbaijan’s licentiousness (meaning the border tensions and subversive actions) are associated with Armenia’s strategic ally’s behavior, in other words, Azerbaijan was checking the firmness of Armenia-Russia relations – to what extent Russia will protect Armenia. And unfortunately, as expressed by the expert, Azerbaijan is convinced that Russia does not particularly stand for Armenia. “In this regard, until the recent political developments, I have had the chance to say that Russia may have one interest in Armenia’s domestic political turmoil and it might be some kind of deal between Russia and Azerbaijan with regard to Artsakh. And it is not accidental that the circulated rumors and ideas refer to this very issue. Look, it seems that Moscow has received everything from Armenia. It has the decision made on September 3, it made Armenia become an EaEU member by the agreement dated October 10 and has enchained Armenia’s independence by a number of agreements, and the leadership of Armenia seems to have done everything obediently. Accordingly, a question arises: why Russia should need other instability, if it has already got everything. Therefore, the number one concern, yes, may be the fact that Armenia’s domestic confused situation might allow, for example, seizure of some areas by Azerbaijan, when Armenia will be weakened and can fit in the Azerbaijani-Russian arrangements. Eventually, let’s not forget that Armenia’s domestic political life, so to speak, is troubled after Gagik Tsarukyan’s visit to Moscow.”
In the context of the above-mentioned analysis, referring to the decision of the President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan on recalling the Armenian-Turkish protocols, Mr. Safaryan said that herewith Armenia deprives Turkey of poking its nose in Karabakh matters. “This is good, but we should bear in mind that if Russia and Turkey have interests in return of some areas, then yes, Armenia seems to depriving Turkey of displaying motives. This move ahead to the Centennial of the Genocide is directed to the international community that has constantly manipulated the protocols. First of all, Turkey has manipulated as one step forward. Now, Armenia makes them understand that this move does not exists, and also is trying to deprive Turkey of this and other opportunities.”
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Nelly BABAYAN
