If 24 years were not successful, it does not mean that it will never happen
The recent 1.5-2 years mistake in Armenia’s domestic political life was methodological. All political parties, commentators and we, the journalists, began to use the term “non-governmental forces”, which from political point of view was an absurd. In democratic and semi-democratic countries of the world, there are two types of political forces: government and opposition. In dictatorship counties, such as all our EaEU partners, there is only government.
On the other hand, it is understandable why PAP was not introducing itself as an opposition. 24 years of experience proves that no one from opposition becomes government. Government is recruited by government only. Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan became President as a result of the 1998 palace coup. In 2008, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan became the President. There was no other “change of power” in Armenia. Accordingly, PAP, being “semi-government and semi-opposition”, wanted to use the two types of levers to come to power. Tax exempted or bad, “preferential” taxable business, of course, is also a part of the government levers.
The government, which, of course, did not like this situation, simplified the political field, now, there is a government and an opposition. This is, in my opinion, the meaning of Serzh Sargsyan’s speech on Thursday, if we put aside all emotional manifestations. Now, PAP is a radical opposition just like its satellite parties.
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As long as “non-radical” opposition does not exist in Armenia, it is clear that the PAP will implement its only mission, which the opposition was implementing over the same 24 years – to demand early resignation of the president and extraordinary presidential elections. Arguments that are presented in favor of this non-original demand are repeated in the given period – the authorities are thieves and robbers, plunderers and so on. It is indeed a good way of mobilizing the poor masses, a necessary but not sufficient condition for change of power.
Over 24 years, the opposition failed to implement regime change, revolution, a coup, whatever you want to call it. But if it had failed, it does not mean that it will never succeed. Today, there are contributing and obstructing factors for it. Contributing factors are: 1/ PAP has sufficient resources, which true, are limited in the status of an opposition, 2/ PAP has a TV channel and numerous websites, plus the ANC websites, 3/ the Internet in Armenia is absolutely free, 4/ the first president with his political experience is next to PAP, and the second president with his material resources and with its unique methods to aggravate the situation. The obstructive factors is that after February 12, the government will be using all economic, administrative and, if necessary, law enforcement resources to oppress the opposition.
But there is also one more “obstructive factor”. Earlier, I wrote that no regime change has occurred over 24 years. But it happened earlier, in 1988-90. Why? The reasons are numerous, but the most important one is that at that time, people with spotless and clean biography were standing in the Freedom Square, who implicitly enjoyed the trust of all people gather there. This cannot be said about today’s PAP. Not to go deeper into the history of this political party, as it is done by RPA propagandists. I would address only one issue, today, PAP members are rightly speaking of the “1937 style”, about which some of the government representatives were talking. And whether in 2007-08, the representatives of this political party were not acting by the same style when Levon Ter-Petrosyan was the leader of the opposition, and were not “circulating” the vox-pops shot by the police over the TV channels after March 1, where the “workers were unanimously condemning” the first president.
… Certain conditions are required for working a miracle. In early 13th century, the Pope was showing his magnificent palace to St. Dominic, saying, “Now Peter Apostle could not say, “Silver and gold have I none.” The Spanish monk gave a reply, “Yes, nor he can say the paralytic, “Rise up and walk.”
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
