“It is possible that if the new ‘cold war’ continues to escalate that Russian-Western competition in the Southern Caucasus will intensify,” such opinion was expressed by American analyst, professor in several universities Gordon Hahn, at the online press conference within the project “Topical Dialogues on the New Integration Agenda of Armenia” of the “Region” Research Center.
According to him, this is already happening with NATO’s plan to expand its ‘Atlantic Resolve’ military exercises. “The problems between Ukraine and Russia persist, and the EU seeks to end its dependence on Russian energy supplies. Russia’s Turkey Stream project also signals that the South Caucasus is likely to become a more coveted energy transit route.”
Mr. Hahn calls attention to “Russia’s successful “care” to Armenia and notes, “Russia’s successful courting of Armenia to join the EEU is another sign of the region’s growing geopolitization. The US is, therefore, likely to pay greater attention to Baku as a counter to the Russian-Armenian axis.”
Gordon Hahn does not agree that Russia benefits of escalating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. According to him, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is built on the interethnic distrust between Baku and Yerevan and the legacy of Soviet state-building. “Russia has no interest in inflaming the conflict. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is largely local.”
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Gordon Hahn predicts two options for the conflict resolution: “(1) the continued conflict driven by the parties themselves and/or by competition between Russia and the West with the latter taking Azerbaijan’s side to counter the Russian-Armenian alliance, or (2) a resolution of the conflict sponsored and guaranteed by Russia.”
Gordon Hahn warns that Armenia should not expect any security guarantees from the West as it has made its choice in favor of Moscow. Gordon Hahn believes that Ukraine’s political and economic crisis could serve as a lesson to Azerbaijan and Armenia not to rely on the West because of the negative reaction sure to come from Moscow.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
