Chairman for Foreign Relations Committee of NKR National Assembly, Vahram Atanesyan, regarding the Aliyev-Sargsyan possible meeting in Riga, the international community’s response to the NKR elections and subsequent steps, as well as the border incidents.
– Although Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s attendance to the EU Eastern Partnership summit in Riga is not yet formally approved, however, quite prestigious media, anonymously citing the OSCE Minks Group diplomats, disseminated information that Serzh Sargsyan-Ilham Aliyev meeting will be held in Riga. If, however, the meeting is held, should we have some expectations from this meeting? Can it become the beginning of resuming the talks on NKR, or it would be the next meeting unproductive meeting of the presidents?
– Prior to traveling to Moscow, in his interview with Russian television, Aliyev said that “there is no contact between the presidents.” I think no Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting is scheduled in Riga. The EU is not directly involved in the peace process. The MG American Co-Chair also hinted that “during the year” they are working on organizing a meeting on a high-level. They are planning to visit the region in late May or early June “to shape a favorable atmosphere for the negotiations.” I do not think that there would be a surprise in Riga. This is a personal impression.
– On the centenary of the Armenian Genocide, Turkey got quite many and rather powerful blows from the international community. Can this fact become a reason for review of denial policy by Azerbaijan and to switch the issue to a negotiation phase, as Azerbaijan, I think, understood that its big bro Turkey could no longer be the sole guarantor of their ambitions.
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– The Azerbaijani approach is not denial but an ultimatum. It’s a manifestation of weakness and, seems like having nothing to do with Turkey. Baku knows long ago that Turkey, to say artlessly, is not a problem-solving country. In my understanding, Azerbaijan has a very dangerous posture. They are expecting for some “force majeure” when it would be possible to use force against Artsakh “at the moment of a big confusion” and achieve success. Or, the international “players” would agree in a way that a “status quo of Soviet times will be restored.” Aliyev inspires his own public that the “time is working in favor of Azerbaijan.” The assumptions about the role of Turkey seem to me exaggerated. Turkey is barely “pulling its load.”
– How do you explain the significant change of approaches by the US Department of State and the OSCE Minsk Group on NKR elections? What effect will it have? If so far these structures do not recognize the NKR elections, now they announce that simultaneously the Artsakh people have the right to determine its own destiny.
– The NKR parliamentary elections were genuinely competitive, free, fair and transparent. The international community could not turn the blind eye to the elections truly not yielding the European standards. For the positive view, it’s worth paying a tribute to the people of Artsakh, its elected government, and all competing political forces, then to the authors, be it the US State Department, EU commissioner’s office for foreign relations or the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship. They must make the next move, because if you recognize the right to elections, while they are saying so, then they should consider the results legitimate, as well as the government bodies formed through the elections. This is especially the commitment of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries as in the document on the formation of the Minsk Group, the NKR elected representatives are recognized as equal rights enjoying entities to the talks.
– Is the reduction of the recent border incidents due to only the upcoming European games in Azerbaijan or there are other reasons, too?
– Apparently, Azerbaijan had big losses at the beginning of the year. Aliyev had signed a special decree on “regulating the dissemination of information in the front line”. A military censorship is introduced to the Azerbaijani regions actually adjacent to Artsakh, and a visa-free regime operates. Recently, the subsequent “rotation” of the command staff occurred in Azerbaijani armed forces. The Barda corps commander is dismissed from his office. The relative easing of tension on the contact line is the achievement of the Armenian soldier and the Commanding officers. The opponent was forced to reckon with the realities. I do not share the view that Azerbaijan is not going for escalations ahead to the European games. These “European games” are not of major importance, the world is “interested” in them as much as Azerbaijan can generate an interest. In my understanding, the political situation in Azerbaijan goes to escalation. Parliamentary elections are expected in the fall. It’s a serious experience for the regime. Tow state coups took place in Azerbaijan because of failures in the battlefield. Aliyev knows what consequences his failure will have.
Interviewed NELLY GRIGORYAN
P.S. Yesterday, late during the day, OSCE Minsk Group Co-James Warlick announced that no Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting is scheduled in Riga.
