“Ark” or “Titanic” – this was the title of the report by Dosym Satpayev, the director of the Almaty-based think-tank Risk Assessment Group, a rare independent expert of the country assessed by the Kazakh journalists, at the conference entitled “Quality Journalism in the Digital Age” held in the city of Almaty holding the honorary title of “southern capital” of Kazakhstan. The conference was attended by journalists from the Eurasian Economic Union countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. On May 18-22, they were joined by Sweden FOJO professional journalists organization, the Belarusian Association of Journalists and Kazakhstan’s “Internews”.
If during the first two days of the conference it was apparent that our Kazakh colleagues were also not particularly delighted with the Eurasian Economic Union, then after Satpayev’s professional analysis, it was evident that the EEU, however, in today’s reality, causes only problems and complaints not only for this Union’s “outsider” Armenia, but also for Kazakhstan, which is the main ideologist of the EaEU.
Kazakh expert noted that Nursultan Nazarbayev perceived the EaEU very subjectively, because it was his idea, and when the businessmen begin complaining, he urges, never mind, resist. But it is obvious that after Nazarbayev, hardly anyone would have such a heartfelt attitude towards this project. “The new generation has no aspiration towards the EaEU and Russia, it is more oriented towards China and Turkey.”
To the question of how it is likely to transit to the common currency, Satpayev replied that common currency is not acceptable for Kazakhstan, and when Putin spoke about it, there was an immediate reaction by Kazakhstan. “According to the EaEU Treaty, the EaEU member states should set up a supranational body in 2025, which will be engaged in the settlement matters of financial market, and the seat will be located in Almaty, and only then we can speak about the common currency.”
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Ultimately, is the Eurasian Economic Union an “Ark” or a “Titanic”? Do you have some opinion about this? In response to our question, the expert unequivocally said, “Yes, I have the answer to this question. The Eurasian Economic Union is a “Titanic”, and has already clashed against a number of icebergs.” And in that case, why was Kazakhstan so fervently pushing this idea forward? According to Satpayev, with the establishment of the EaEU, Kazakhstan was thinking about acquiring a larger market, but then he faced the fact that it has nothing to sell but raw materials.
Since last December, as a result of reefs raised before the EaEU -“Titanic”, an anti-Eurasian movement has been launched in Kazakhstan. Although Nazarbayev tries to resist Russia’s imperialistic aspirations, in particular, he reached the point that the provisions on having common parliament, common foreign relations and common media field were eliminated from the EaEU Treaty, however, there is a fear in Kazakhstan that the Ukrainian scenario may possibly be repeated in their country, it is not ruled out that the separatist movement may commence in Northern Kazakhstan, of course, not without Russia abetting. The Kazakh government shows that it is not afraid of separatism, anyway, it stiffened the sanctions in the criminal code defined for the separatism.
To the question of whether Kazakhstan has recorded a benefit as of the moment as a result of the EaEU establishment, the expert gave a denial response, “Not a single benefit, on the contrary, as of March, 2015, the turnover has dropped by 20%.” To the point, interestingly, Kazakhstan’s major trading partner is not Russia or China, as it might seem, but as in the case of Armenia, the European Union.
We also asked Dosym Satpayev about Armenia’s accession to the EaEU and not so much warm attitude of Nazarbayev to it. The expert, of course, explained it by the option of “nothing personal, just business” and reminded that Azerbaijan is a much more important partner for Kazakhstan than Armenia. But, apart from the factor of Azerbaijan, there was a simple calculation. “I was also reluctant to Armenia’s membership. We were thinking about why we need our own Greece in the EaEU, the weak link under the name Armenia. I repeat again, nothing personal, just business. It is clear that enrolling a weak country into the Union, the strong ones should take its problems on them.”
In response to these thoughts by Satpayev, the Armenian journalists became upset asking why then you were forcing us to join the structure if you did not want, and we heard what we knew very well, it were not us to force you but the Russians, for whom Armenia’s membership was a purely political score.
The expert repeatedly stressed that Kazakhstan is constantly talking about withdrawal from the EaEU (it is possible by notifying a year in advance about the intention), however, they have fears about how Putin’s Russia will react to it.
The anti-Eurasia and anti-Russian sentiments are gradually growing in the country, and under their influence, according to our Kazakh colleagues, Nazarbayev attended even the May 9 celebrations without Saint George’s Ribbon, which, naturally, was not done just for nothing. The country, unlike the Soviet era, when the Kazakhs were the minority – only 40 percent of the population, now the Kazakhs make the 61 percent of the population and periodically put forward national, even nationalist demands, including the refusal of Russian as the second state language. Nazarbayev so far resists it. The Kazakhs has registered a demographic growth thanks to the growth of not only the birth rate, but also on the account of organizing the immigration of Ural men, ethnic Kazakhs, at the state level, resulting in return of more than 900 thousand people from different countries to Kazakhstan, mainly from Uzbekistan, Iran, Mongolia and China. No return is registered from the European countries and Turkey. To the question of why no people are returned from Russia, so whether the situation there is better, he replied that the reason is that the Kazakhs in Russian are mainly living in their ancestral homeland: Astrakhan, Orenburg, etc., and it is their homeland and not a foreign country. Hence, Kazakhs, in their turn, may have territorial claims from Russia, said the journalist jokingly.
Note that the Kazakhs were dissatisfied with the impact of sanctions against Russia on their country. They could not understand why they would suffer from «Крым наш» (the Crimea is ours) if Crimea is not theirs at all. In this regard, our Belarus and Kazakhstan colleagues happily noted that their countries were able to maintain neutrality and not to become Russia’s tool, moreover, now Minsk and Astana are competing with each other for their role in the establishment of peace in Ukraine; Lukashenko and Nazarbayev want to seize the “peace dove” laurels from each other. In this regard, we, the Armenians, have not room to speak at all…
Melania BARSEGHYAN
Almaty – Yerevan
In the photo – Dosym Satpayev (on the left) presents his observations on the EaEU
“Aravot” daily
