According to the expert for the French Military Research Foundation, Gaydz Minasyan, people with new mindset are required, the Soviet mindset is no longer useful.
– Mr. Minasyan, how would you generally assess the “Eastern Partnership” Summit in Riga? Were our expectations met?
– Overall, the Summit showed that the relationships between Russia and the European Union have been slightly lessened. There are the atmosphere and the political will to solve the problems, not to make noise and to relax. This is a positive trend because it is clear that the more the relations between Russia and the West are “good”, the better for Armenia. If these relationships become complicated and escalated, Armenia would appear in a grave situation. So, summing up, let’s say that as long as the Russia-EU relations are moving toward easing, Armenia is in an advantageous situation, especially since Armenia can become a bridge between the EU and Russia, as Armenia is an EaEU member and is seeking to reach a new milestone with the EU. Europe wants Armenia to work more actively with the EU under the “Eastern Partnership” program.
In this case, Armenia also gets an opportunity to play its “game”. For this very reason, Serzh Sargsyan attended the Riga Summit to show that he is ready for a closer relations with the EU and that he is present to say not to anti-Russian manifestations. As we know, so it happened, the preliminary option in the final declaration of the Summit was against Russia, therefore, the presidents of Armenia and Belarus expressed their disagreements. Thus, Armenia’s participation in the Riga Summit at the presidential level was a correct move.
– Serzh Sargsyan has repeatedly mentioned in his speech that Armenia can become a bridge between the EU and the EaEU. During the Riga meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Stephen Louvain, the latter welcomed the policy aimed at Armenia’s becoming a bridge between the EaEU and the EU, which, in his opinion, could become an important platform for partnership. Can Armenia receive an opportunity here for maneuvering, or you actually see such an opportunity to become such a major mediator?
– Should the EaEU-member Armenia be able to commence negotiations with the EU on the political component and sign an agreement with the EaEU, simultaneously remaining as an EaEU member, it would show that it is possible to cooperate with the two structures. Armenia’s example can serve for other countries that it is possible to closely cooperate with the two structures. In this regard, Armenia can become a bridge so that the countries would not have to choose either Russia or the EU side. Now, it is a highly important period. Europe has its own plans with Armenia on Iran. Next, Armenia with its diplomacy is gradually reaching its goals. Armenia joined the Eurasian Economic Union, signed a Free Trade Agreement with the United States and will commence negotiations with the EU, and surely an agreement will be signed on the political component. Armenia seeks to demonstrate that we should live in a peaceful world by cooperating both with the US, the Russian Federation, and the EU, no need to draw dividing lines between the West and Russia. Armenia wants to show that following its own example, it is possible to solve the problems.
– Let’s go back to Azerbaijan, which is subjected to harsh criticism by the Western countries and structures. Do you consider it possible that under this situation Azerbaijan may be more declined towards Russia expecting the support of the Kremlin in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process? Recently, Moscow discussed the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister noted that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has excessively matured, and that it is necessary to solve it, while the Russian Foreign Minister announced that the Karabakh conflict settlement is among Russia’s foreign policy priorities.
– The fact that Aliyev did not attend the Riga Summit, there was a special reason for it, he was reluctant to meet Serzh Sargsyan, and if he had attended, it was likely that he would meet. This is just a blow to the OSCE Minsk Group. Aliyev is trying to show that he has no problems with Russia and the relationships with Russia are more cordial than with the EU. According to official Baku, the Europe assesses Azerbaijan for its oil and gas, therefore, it feels itself powerful, thinking that it should not be subjected to criticism, no requirements should be placed in front of Azerbaijan by the West, especially now, prior to the upcoming European Games in Baku. Azerbaijan believes that it would get everything from Russia, realizing that Russia nowadays attaches greater importance to relations with Azerbaijan than with Armenia. Giving more importance to Azerbaijan, however, does not mean giving a blow to Armenia and exert pressure.
In addition, the Russian-Azerbaijani relations definitely are not related so smoothly in regard to Azerbaijan’s membership to the Eurasian Economic Union. Azerbaijan is unwilling to join this structure, the Baku principle is as follows: to be good to everyone without a membership. Therefore, they want to prove to Russia, look, we are a good student, Aliyev did not attend the Riga Summit to show that it was not so important gathering for them. While the EU responded to this move by Aliyev with a “slap”, in the final statement of the Summit, the principle expected by Azerbaijan was not voiced. Whether this statement was important for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or not, it is another issue, however, the fact is that this “game” was carried out.
Azerbaijan is ready to reach an agreement with everyone but not with Armenia, its demands are from Armenia, they want to bring Armenia to knees so that Azerbaijan would appear more powerful. But this period is over, Armenia is more important today than twenty years ago. Why? For a very simple reason. The more Turkey and Azerbaijan become powerful economically and politically, the more Armenia’s position become strengthened because no state in the world: Iran, Russia, Europe, China and the US, no one wants Turkey and Azerbaijan to become so much powerful. Unfortunately, however, the government authorities of Armenia do not use these processes as appropriate.
– Do you consider it possible that Moscow at the last moment would again ban Armenia to sign a new agreement with the EU, or now, when certain lessening of the EU-Russia relations are observed, which is also a favorable situation for Armenia in this respect?
– First, the Russians did what they wanted, and received what they wanted. But Russia also needs Armenia looking towards Europe because if Armenia becomes an example, it would prove both Russia and the EU that it is possible to combine the relations. The Russia-West problems are not fully resolved, and if the relations are totally normalized, then Armenia can easily sign an agreement with the EU, in the meantime, however, it is too early to say whether Armenia would sign a document with the EU or not.
Armenia’s steps in the recent period toward Russia, the US, the EU, and China were right. With its diplomacy, Armenia shows that it strives to work with all superpowers, simultaneously noting that they are also attaching more importance to Armenia. But, alas, Armenia’s diplomacy does not go further more. In this key geopolitical period, new ideas and initiatives are required from Armenia, with new faces and new capable powers. RPA has exhausted itself, it is on power for a pretty long time, it’s really tiresome. People with new mindset are required, the Soviet mindset is no longer useful, this situation inside should be changed, its time has come.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily
