Russian expert and analyst Vadim Dubnov believes that whoever becomes the leader of Armenia, he is going to play with the established governance rules.
– Mr. Dubnov, Armenia and the EU again discuss the possibility of signing an agreement. Serzh Sargsyan attended the Riga summit of the Eastern Partnership countries and made it clear that Armenia is ready to sign a new legal document with the EU. Is it possible that Russia would again prevent Armenia expanding its relations with the EU?
– Firstly, you have already received what was possible two years ago, on September 3. As to what can be received from Russia afterward, I do not know for you have already received losses in the scale of few years. Everyday humiliations from Russia are possible, but they are nothing. God forbid having processes like the Gyumri events, in this perspective, nothing will change. There would be no worse anymore, but I am sure that Moscow would not prevent Armenia in the programs jointly with the EU, for instance, on the matter of tuberculosis or family abuse.
– But we are talking about the RA-EU new agreement, and in addition to the political component, it seems that discussions are going on around the economic component too. Do you think the EU would sign a serious document with Armenia?
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– Given what has been announced, I think, not. As to the protocols of intentions, then a nice document can be adopted about them, according to which, you would be committed to improving, reforming, renovating and so on, and, of course, the EU would assist you.
– In your opinion, what is the future of the Eurasian Economic Union? Obviously, problems arise in this structure at times, once Nazarbayev and then Lukashenko oppose to one or the other issue.
– No happy future is expected to the Eurasian Union because no tasks are placed before it and no serious actions are required from this structure. This structure is established exclusively for existing. While, no one requires a task from this structure to operate efficiently and a demand to change something. This is a political project, the aim of which is to incite the partners to make certain steps in certain situations. But, Russia is not particularly fortunate in terms of its counterparts. You would not enter into a “purchase and sale” with Alexander Grigorevich Lukashenko, Nursultan Abishevich also has his own ideas, and the fact that Serzh Sargsyan would not agree, it would not change many things. Accordingly, the Eurasian Economic Union does not represent any danger because there is nothing that can be exposed to danger.
– How do you assess the current level of the Azerbaijani-Russian and Russian-Turkish relations? Can these quite impressive relations affect the Karabakh conflict settlement process, in terms of non-Armenophile developments?
– I do not think so. Russia-Azerbaijan relations are derivatives to what policy is conducted by Azerbaijan while Azerbaijan chooses the model to stay maximum away from the force centers. In other words, there are three options: the Armenian complementarity, Russian option – towards the Western policy, conventionally, and the Azerbaijani option – to stay away from the politics. Azerbaijan runs this “game” and it is stipulated by the domestic political choice.
– What “game” does Russia run in the South Caucasus?
– Russia does not play any “game”. Russia pursues its own interests in the South Caucasus, which it no way manages to formulate, although it is evident that these interests should be there. In fact, formulating these interests is a complex task, which is normal. Along with my respect towards the South Caucasus countries, I must say that, on the other hand, no one is interested in them in the strategic point of view.
– Interestingly, it seems to us that Russia is unable to maintain its positions without South Caucasus.
– Russia can survive without the South Caucasus. It just needs to embody its presence and implement its interests where there are dangers because they include infrastructural and road projects through Armenia, Georgia and so on. But there is no meaning for them because there are no truly formulated interests. Among the South Caucasus countries, Russia was constantly interested Azerbaijan primarily, bother in terms of economic interests and in terms of informal expectation of bonuses, for this reason, major work has been done with Azerbaijan. During the first years of independence of Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani trend was an anti-Moscow, it was mostly a pro-Western. But now, Ilham Aliyev has some complexes in the contacts with the West. Some people think that the Moscow supporters won in Baku. In my opinion, there are truly Moscow supporters in Azerbaijan, they are indeed active, they are established in the Aliyev’s ruling pyramid, and he perfectly rules and restrains them. Moscow also is well aware of it, and the rumors that allegedly Azerbaijan may join the Eurasian Economic Union are not serious. Ilham Heydarovich has not created all of it to appear in the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union one nice morning.
– What can you say about the current level of the Armenian-Russian relations? For example, there are a lot of talks that the relationships between the presidents of Russia and Armenia are problematic… Do you think there are problems in Armenian-Russian relations, even after September 3, 2013, after Armenia made a decision?
– I do not think so. Moreover, in my impression, these relations are so in tune to Aliyev that there could be no problem. Moscow frankly does not make differences between the individuals. Moscow likes Serzh Sargsyan only for the fact that he is working with them for a long time, therefore, they would not like to change anything. But, if Robert Sedrakovich shows up all of a sudden … But anyway, whoever becomes the leader in Armenia, he is going to play by the rules of the governance established in Armenia, nothing will change for a long time, and this is the problem of Armenia and Russia’s guarantee that nothing threatens Moscow here in its interests.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily
