Two of the six EU Eastern Partnership countries – Armenia and Belarus, are Eurasian Economic Union member countries. Three Eastern Partnership countries- Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova have signed association agreements with the EU. And among EaP countries, only Azerbaijan has not become a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, nor has it signed an Association Agreement with the EU. It is interesting to mention the indicators and trends in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova on the one side, and EEU members Armenia and Belarus, as well as Russia and Kazakhstan on the other side.
Figure 1․ GDP Indicators in EEU countries and Countries that Have Signed the Association Agreement in 2014 by Percent
As we can see from Figure 1, economic growth indicators in Moldova and Georgia have been higher in 2014 compared to the four EEU countries. At the same time, Ukraine, which has signed the Association Agreement, has recorded 6.8% decline related to the war taking place in the East of the country.
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Figure 2 shows the GDP growth predictions for this year according to the report recently published by the International Monetary Fund. And Figure 3 shows the predictions for the year 2016.[1]
Figure 2․ GDP Growth Predictions for 2015 according to IMF, %
As we can see in Figure 2, three out of four member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union have recorded economic decline. Armenia has recorded -1% decline. Economic decline is also predicted for two out of three countries that have signed the Association Agreement. Moldova is also joining the countries that have negative GDP dynamics.
Regarding 2016, according to IMF predictions, the perspectives in countries that have signed the Association Agreement are noticeably better than in EEU member countries (Figure 3).
Figure 3․ GDP Growth Prediction for 2016 according to IMF, %
So, Russia and Belarus (two out of four EEU countries) will continue recording GDP decline in the coming year. In Armenia, the GDP will neither grow nor decline next year. In Kazakhstan, it will grow, as always. Meanwhile, all the 3 countries that have signed the Association Agreement will record economic growth.
Thus, both the countries that have signed the Association Agreement (except for Georgia) and the EEU member countries (except for Kazakhstan) experienced economic decline last year or will experience it this year. Nevertheless, all the countries that have signed the Association Agreement will enter the stage of economic growth according to the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile, crisis and decline will continue in Eurasian Economic Union member countries (except for Kazakhstan).
Hrayr Manukyan
“Union of Informed Citizens”
