By Anush Sedrakyan
Political analyst
“Improving Security Policy Debates in Armenia” Program (NED)
The Armenian Institute of the International and Security Affairs (AIISA)
The 21st century has drastically changed the epoch’s face, and new challenges came forward. Before the 21st century a relative equilibrium had been dominating in geopolitical field: technologically developed countries were powerful by their modern technologies, while countries providing raw material – by their resources. However, technological progress changed this balance.
Russia’s place and position in Eurasian partnership
Russia perceived sharp after-effect of geopolitical transitions very late, especially when post-Soviet countries started active negotiations with the EU, as well as with the USA.
1. Military security zone. Russia is flatland; its security zone can’t be restricted by any natural barriers, i.e. by mountain ranges. To defend its own zones of influence Russia has only one guarantee, i.e. deploying military bases. West-oriented Ukraine (in European part) and Georgia (in South Caucasus) have reduced Russia’s security zone.
Besides military guarantee, unfortunately, Russia didn’t provide any other guarantee for itself: it didn’t establish domestic economic stability, powerful and durable society, guarantees for being a technological progress trend leader, and, by this, it has blocked its routes.
2. Economic opportunities. Together with military security zone Russia started losing its economic opportunities as well.
For a long period Russia was using its oil and gas “weapon” as a political “stick” for East- European countries, also to suppress post-Soviet countries artificially raising the gas tariff. This is apparently demonstrated by Armenia’s example; having an opportunity to buy cheaper gas from Iran, official Yerevan, under political pressure, gives preference to Russian fuel. Surely, Russia knows that it applies economic levers for political purposes. Accordingly, target countries equally have the right not to give way to political considerations and pursue their economic goals. Just due to the second reason Russia perceives its Eurasian ambitions at stake.
3. Ambition to be a world superpower. Russia’s ambition to be a world superpower is due through two factors: firstly, providing its own cultural, economic globalization presence through economic progress in different regions, and secondly, vertically institutionalized physical presence, for which it’s necessary to prepare a public opinion both inside and outside the country. Russian propaganda considers the preparation of such opinion rather effectively for domestic audience.
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Domestic situation reflection inside and outside Russia
Russian society is not aware of financial, economic and military condition both inside and outside Russia. The myth of Russia’s being a super power is being constantly exaggerated, for which there are several factors:
1. Putin’s image, which is presented as a symbol of an empire rising from ruins, as a person, who could provide second breath to the empire, and, of course, extended its borders, conquer the Crimea, and is on the threshold of taking Donbas and Lugansk. We can say, that glorification of the Soviet Union attributes by Russian TVs is within the compulsory time period of state funding for 1st and 2nd Russian TV channels.
2. Historical reality comes to fulfill the role of modern politics, as a result of which the WWII or the Great Patriotic War by Soviet naming and its victory are widely outspoken on news, TV shows, past glory of the Soviet symbolic and institutes are being restored episode by episode. The first of those institutes was the Soviet KGB, i.e. secret security, deprived of public rating.
3. Another attempt of imperialist ambitions outside the country is foundation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). This, of course, pursues one purpose, i.e. defense of Russia’s borders. One of rare places, where it’s maintained, is Armenia-Turkey border. By considering it, it’s sometimes forgotten, that it’s former Soviet Union and NATO border. If the United States is interested in its opening, then Russia’s aspiration is to see it closed forever.
Putin can’t contaminate nomenclature dictators of sovereign republics with his ambitions, who have been aware of the policy of the Soviet Union for 70 years, and tend not to trust Russia’s promises, especially when they have more or less stabile economy, rather powerful raw material resources, can satisfy global demands, realizing, that without foreign investments they are unable to stand on their feet.
4. Russia’s ambitions also fade due to successful cultural, military and diplomatic expansions by the West, the result of which is possible agreement of the “Six” with Iran, due to which Iran will become a political partner, will cease to be a playing card in hands of Turkey, and will improve its ties with the civilized world, of course, within western concept.
Russia’s new status in the context of world challenges
Russia is left out of the chance to participate in respond to global challenges, and even doesn’t express a willingness to maintain its participation. During the last G7 summit a statement was made, that Russia can never return to that format until the Crimea is returned. On account of Russia’s position on the Crimea issue, it’s obvious, that Russia isn’t going to take part in discussions of global challenges, among them terrorism, at higher representative instances for a long time [1]. Both the USA, Russia, Europe are target for terror [2].
Other global challenges like global warming, fight against epidemics, environmental issues and etc. are noted by formal participation of Russia, as it’s observed as an apt partner to give solutions to the challenges.
Features of Armenia-Russia partnership
To strengthen its own economic capabilities Armenia, for sure, has an imperative to disengage with Russia’s imperial field. Gradual stabilization of ties of Iran, Armenia’s direct neighbor, with western countries can be a serious playing card for Armenia’s economic and political independence. Joint actions of energy resources rich countries of the Islamic world and the western countries in systematic lowering of oil prices leave Russia to Turkey’s and Azerbaijan’s mercy.
Actually, Russia’s efforts to maintain European borders are doomed to complete failure; the Ukraine is hopelessly lost.
As compared to the Ukraine, the opinion of Armenian society on Russian expansion is mainly positive or neutral, which is conditioned by:
a) historical factors,
b) one-sided information and propaganda by TVs,
c) weakness of pro-Western factor in the political field and shortage of pro-European forces among authorities and opposition.
Indeed, by fighting against NATO, Russia automatically attracts NATO to its borders. The circle is narrowing day by day, whereas Russia succeeds to oppose it through imitation political functions.
1. On Russia’s political arena the victory of 9 May 1945 and the parade devoted to its 70th anniversary, including historical victories, are introduced as the most important events. Generally, presentation of historical events is considered as political priority, as the Genocide and its Centennial have been applied as a political agenda in Armenia. Current political reaction on historical events shows international rating of the state in the world. In Armenia, this rating policy was a real success, whereas the attitude towards Russia was demonstrated by ignorance policy by the civilized world.
2. The second imitation factor against the backdrop of economic recession in response to the imposed sanctions by the West is Russia’s unrealistic economic policy. Russia imposed its own “economic sanctions”, which obviously can’t affect any world economic process. Another economic “bluff” was the statement on replacing imported goods by Russian exchange, i.e. “import substitution”, whereas Russia obviously is unable not only to produce applied products like telephones, computers, but what is noteworthy, it doesn’t have the opportunity to provide availability of advanced technologies, programs and microsystems.