Aravot.am asked the orientalist Artak Avetisyan what positive reaction may the historical events going on in Iran have for Armenia, the lifting of sanctions against this country. “To understand what event happened, one must be able to analyze the text of the agreement and the underlying message. The text hints us that a historic agreement has been reached saying that Iran suspends its uranium enrichment program. The United States and the allies that joined the sanctions against Iran lift the sanctions, phase by phase. In this sense, it is a very nice, very obtained and progressive move in the world history.
On the other hand, to understand the underlying message, 1-2 observations should be made. Once, if we recall, people involved in this matter or just people who were interested in the politics, were rejecting the allegations of America, explicitly by the level of all officials, that Iran is enriching uranium. Currently, the agreement clearly reads that Iran will no longer be engaged in uranium enrichment, which means that Iran admits the fact that it has enriched uranium earlier. It is not written anywhere in the document that if it has already enriched uranium, so to what extent, in what volume, what will be done with this uranium, where it will be moved, whether they will give the enriched uranium to the Americans or not.
To that extent, can Iran have a trump card in hand to be able to use it if necessary if it ceases enriching uranium, does it stop the work of all these institutions that were involved in Iran’s nuclear program? The matter is about tens of thousands of people: scientists, employees, institutes and laboratories that were involved in Iran’s nuclear program. Nothing is said about it. To understand whether Armenia will benefit or not, we need to understand the underlying messages.
The underlying messages of this Agreement contain shadow and verbal agreements, which definitely exist and are not fixed on the paper. What actions are planned against Russia in general, as today whatever the United States does, any move is directed against Russia in the region? I exclude that Russia has no role in this matter, although we must say that Russia officially welcomed this move by Iran. Although ethically and diplomatically it would not be right to say that it did not stem from our interests as to why you ceased and so on. Armenia itself is a small player and after joining the EaEU, it is more connected with Russia. We need to understand as to what extent this agreement between Iran and America is globally against Russians, and the fact that it is against, it is definite.
Today, America cannot make a global move in the region and all of a sudden this move work for the benefit of Russia. In other words, on the one hand, to apply sanctions against Russia, on the one hand, to escalate and aggravate the Ukrainian issue and publish lists of Russian businessmen and officials entering the USA and Europe, in other words, use all kinds of measures to tighten the ring around Russia and all of a sudden to leave interesting solutions here for Russia?
Should Armenia have some interests, it should try to come up with an initiative of its own, not being dependent on Russia. But all of this is so, though there are no eternal friends or enemies in the politics, it is always possible to establish relationship from somewhere, but always, when Iran wants to use Armenia as a northern gate, to crack the so-called sanction or to facilitate its burden, any attempt by Armenia’s authorities to make a step forward in this regard has encountered the imperialistic aspirations of the Russian state.
In other words, our enhancement and strengthening, Iran’s strengthening in the region has never be contributed and stemmed from Russia’s interests. On the other hand, there is another major player in the region – Turkey, which at this point, whether we like it or not, is the biggest state and plays a great role in the region, which of course also runs counter to the interests of strengthening Iran. And the fact that weakening of Turkey does not stem from the interests of America, this is also understandable. Thus, it should not welcomed childishly, with sparkling eyes, jumping and applauding about what a good thing happened.”
According to the orientalist, it is a multi-layered and profound problem, and Iran was able to arrange its economy so that to have a country in the event of strong pressures and sanctions whose standard of living was better than of semi-bad Armenia. “Iran has found domestic resources for living. Now, if people open-heartedly are thinking and want to live better, more prosperous, this is already a different matter. I do not think that the Iran’s spiritual leadership would like to import European values to Iran. This is the generation, the government is the descendants of the people who in 1979 made the state flourishing equally to Europe and living by the same customs a theocratic state. I do not think that the Iranian authorities are once again enthusiastic for replacing the theocratic government with democratic and European values. They wanted this agreement be signed, the borders are opened and the people running to Europe.
One way or another, there was an emigration from Iran, all those people who do not cope with the living conditions in Iran, the dictatorship in Iran, the repressions of freedom of expression and the violence were fleeing Iran in any way, like the people who flee Armenia in any way and any form. In other words, socially, there was no this kind of problem to go for changes in Iran and specifically go for concessions with America so that the country would live better and become more prosperous.
The government authorities took this step to strengthen its own power, the same theocratic government needs more money, perhaps, to further strengthen this governance model inside the country by making it more extremist. And if somewhere this money will not be sufficient, at this point, if there is extra money in the budget of the Islamic Republic of Iran, all of it will be directed not to contribute to the prosperity of European flourishing values, but on the contrary, to the strengthening of the government.”
To the question of whether it is worthy to be excited with the Iran-Armenia railway project ahead of the time, our interlocutor reminded that it has been four years since attempts are made to build the “North-South” automobile highway According to him, in the event of major grants and loans, the building of 500 kilometers of road is becoming difficult, it does not work out, the deadlines are constantly changing. Building the railway, according to him, perhaps is easier to depict on the map, draw with a pen or visualize in the air. According to our interlocutor, the ready-made railway, which passes through Nakhchivan and was used during the Soviet years, is possible to run after technical modernization, however, there is the issue of Armenia and Azerbaijan, there is no peace – no war situation.
“I do not think that someone needs this regional Gordian knot to cut down with one strike of a sword, to solve the problem of Iran, to solve the problem in Turkey, to solve the problem in Syria, to solve the problems in the territories of Iraq and Syria of the Islamic State and to solve the problem of Azerbaijan and Karabakh…. There are so many problems in our region; the superficial observation shows that the meal that is cooked in the pot of this region is not unequivocal. At this point, something undigested was taken out from this meal, but what you said is a memorandum of intent on the paper, not to speak about that many intentions are still on the paper,” says Artak Avetisyan.
Nune AREVSHATYAN
