Expert Tigran Abrahamyan about the activity of Azerbaijan and inactivity of the Minsk Group co-chairs
– In fact, the recent tension on the border comes to prove that the trueness of the predictions that after the Olympics Games, Azerbaijan will again keep on the adventures. Up to where will Azerbaijan go? What is the possibility of the blitzkrieg?
– Azerbaijan’s defense ministry tactical plans are built based on local operations implemented by a specific frequency. It is clear that Azerbaijan was not going to display any activity during the sporting events hosted in its country. On the other hand, it was clear that the relative peace cannot be maintained in the forefront for a long time. This is why the experts predict that after the end of the sporting events, Azerbaijan will gradually become active in the front line. As for the possibility of “blitzkrieg”, then in the event of the unresolved conflict, no scenario should be excluded. In any case, carrying out a “blitzkrieg” is pretty difficult, both in military and political point of view.
– Our neighbor was not even refrained by the presence of the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in the region. In your opinion, whom and what does Azerbaijan want them to understand?
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– With its moves, Azerbaijan demonstrates its rigid, maximalist stance in the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Representatives of all countries and international structures that are directly or indirectly involved in process of the problem are speaking about the exclusively peaceful option of the settlement of the conflict, while Azerbaijan, also in this way, expresses its disagreement.
– Why do the Minsk Group Co-Chairs and other international entities continue to be limited to indifference or, at best, to the statements supporting mostly both sides? Which of the superpowers currently benefits from this tense situation on the Karabakh-Azerbaijan borderline? Who benefits from the escalated situation in this area?
– The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries agree at least on one and the most important issue: the peaceful settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has no alternative. It is another matter when the Azerbaijani activities do not deserve an adequate response by the international community. To the point, when I am talking about the response, I don’t mean only the “expected statements”. The mediating countries, still several years ago, had presented the sides the confidence-building measures: the introduction of the mechanisms to investigate the incidents happened in the front line and withdrawal of snipers from the frontline. The proposal was applauded both in Armenia and Artsakh, but Azerbaijan rejected it for known reasons. I say for known reasons because only Azerbaijan pursues a goal to provoke tension in the frontline while the introduction of these mechanisms would further highlight the fact of inciting provocations by Azerbaijan. Hence, by saying an “adequate response by the international community”, we should mean more objective measures, the statements in such cases change very little. If the international community wants to achieve reduction of tension in the frontline, then first of all, through the pressures or some other way, it is necessary to achieve the point that Azerbaijan admits the implementation of confidence-building measures.
– Ultimately, what is the response by the Armenian side: continuous shooting, subversive actions…?
– Armenia and Artsakh must be prepared to any scenario of the development of the situation. The defense engineering constructions deployed in the frontline must be continuously reinforced. If necessary, be prepared for preventive operations in the opponent’s territory and giving targeted attacks. Ensuring security of military servants is primary, as well as the establishment of such infrastructure and facilities in the frontline, which will allow the armed forces, if necessary, to pass from protection to defense or attack. Presently, modern technologies are applied in the forefront, the main goal of which is to make the enemy’s operations more predictable and to minimize the possible losses.
– What connection do you see between this activity of Azerbaijan and the loan to Armenia by Russia for the acquisition of military equipment? Especially, when information was circulated that under this transaction, an “Iskander M” type of operative tactical missile complex will be acquired, which was talked about still 1-2 years ago.
– Frankly speaking, I do not see a specific connection. Indeed, it was expected that there would be reactions from Azerbaijan, but they were in the form of statements and were more expressing the concerns of the Azerbaijani political leadership in the possible acquisition of the aforementioned missile complex. Given the “Iskander-M” tactical and technical capabilities, Azerbaijan’s reaction is understandable. However, it should be noted that the acquisition of the missile complex is not officially confirmed nor denied.
Interviewed by Nelly Grigoryan, “Aravot” daily
