Oil sellers are doing restless motions
The law of synchrony is known in the science. If several events occur simultaneously, then it is possible that there is some logical connection, a “plan” in them. If you, for example, sneeze when somewhere in the Siberia is falling, then there is no connection between these events. But if you order a white shirt, but a black shirt is mistakenly sent to you, and then an embarrassing situation happens to you, there is a connection here, it is not linear and cause-and-effect, it is rather symbolic and “statistical”. In this case, you do not ask a question “why has it happened?” rather than “Why? What for has it happened?”
Let’s list the chronology of recent events in our region (by the way, it is the time, it seems to me, to realize that the concept of “our region” includes not only our direct neighbors but also at least “their neighbors”, particularly Syria and Iraq). A “historic transaction” is signed between Iran and the “six”, an unprecedented decline in oil prices is recorded: less than 55 dollars per barrel, the Russian ruble dropped. Among all of this, it seems easy to find the cause-and-effect connections. But let us a bit complicate our problem and adds a number of other events to it. Russia will sell C300 missile systems to Iran, Turkey launched cruise missiles to the “Islamic state” and the positions of Kurdish militants (though on July 20, the “Islamic state” is blamed for the terrorism in the Turkish city Zürich, while the victims were the Kurds), the “Islamic state” and the Afghan Taliban have declared a “mutual jihad”, Libya announced that it will eradicate the “Islamic state” if the veto to supply weapons to this country is removed. Finally, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair James Warlick in Yerevan and the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, in Baku and in Yerevan, have made statements on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Who can say that all these events are not connected with each other? It’s another question that it is necessary to be an orientalist to scientifically prove this connection, and even the specialist will not be able to reveal this logic to fit on one and a half computer pages. But even by a cursory glance it is possible to notice “recurring topics”: war-weapon-oil. If we begin with the last one, then we can repeat the forecast of respected experts that there will be no 100-dollar oil in the visible historic future. The unit price of the coal oil today is approximately 60 dollars, and the Americans, who have the appropriate technology, condition its production by the price of a “regular oil”. If the oil price is below 50 dollars, many people will “suffer”, Russia – in the first place (and we along with Russia because we depend on the transfers of our fellow citizens from this country). If any individual, a country or an organization realizes that it is going to encounter major challenges in the near future, then it takes some counter-measures that should improve the situation to some extent. All sellers of oil take steps: Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the “Islamic state” and others. Unfortunately, these steps are not only economic but also military in a broad sense, not only in the sense of military operations but also selling of arms. The point that no one will benefit from it, and everyone will eventually suffer from militarization in the region, this, at least for me, is indisputable.
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But, probably, it is also clear that we are living at the end of the century in a global context. This century can conventionally be called a “hydrocarbon” century, not only because they are consumed and cannot be restored. Imposing anything through it, blackmailing, building politics or an economy on it is increasingly becoming ineffective. I remembered a title of the story by a great American writer, “The End of Something.”
Aram ABRAHAMYAN,
“Aravot” daily
