Today, Russia being in a dire foreign political and economic situation has few allies. As the individual who perceives life as a “struggle” against the enemies around him and because of this world outlook, he almost does not have friends who love and respect him, so as the states, whose ideology is based on the concept “to be protected” from the hostile environment, eventually, they end up in isolation.
Naturally, in this situation, Russia does not want to lose Armenia, which, despite its small size, is one of Russia’s “rare” allies. In particular, this is the reason why the Russian Embassy to Armenia is annoyed, and, in my opinion, gives excessive significance to Artur Sakunts’ and Levon Barseghyan’s activities and sometimes even “hints” to our local authorities to “deal” with such people and organizations. The fear, of course, is the “Maidan”, in other words, such a social movement that will not only carry out a regime change but will also “divert” Armenia towards the West. Let us not address the question of why this is not possible, and why the West is no good too. Let us talk about political or social movements.
Do you remember when the PAP Party and its allies were demonstrating political activism? How many times this Parliamentary Four and then Troika representatives had to announce that the target of their criticism is the local authorities in Armenia and the “popular” movement is no way directed against Russia? In other words, it is not a Maidan. After “getting credits” with Ambassador Volinkin, these forces could freely continue their “non-governmental” activities, but the resource was not sufficient.
The very first days of the events in Baghramyan Street seemed a “Maidan” in the eyes of Russia, and the water cannon on June 23 was the direct consequence of it. But later, local authorities of Armenia, the protesters, other politicians and commentators explained to our strategic ally that the events did not even smell a “Maidan”, and everything shifted to a peace phase. Now, the issue is successfully resolved at the level of Deputy police chief, Valery Osipyan.
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The following situation has been created: if the social movement is not a “Maidan”, then there is a chance that everything will be more or less peaceful. But, on the other hand, if it is not a “Maidan”, then it is likely that it will not be dangerous for local authorities too. Rather, it would be dangerous in the event if it gets the Kremlin’s explicit sponsorship. Sometimes some “non-government officials” say that such support does exist. But apparently, it is from the series of putting the desirable for reality.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
