Economist Artak Manukyan is skeptical to the international predictions about 1.5% economic growth in Armenia for 2015, as he does not see any essential prerequisite for the growth. The Fitch International rating agency foresees a growth of GDP by 1.5% in our country this year while the forecast in February was 0.5% decline. It should be noted that the International Monetary Fund had also predicted a 0% growth. There is no positive move in the key industries providing economic growth in Armenia to make our economy grow.
In the interview with “Aravot”, Artak Manukyan told that if such a prestigious agency is predicted a growth, then it should indicate, let’s say, in which international prices of copper it makes this prediction, while the international prices for copper have a significant impact on the economy of Armenia, like the oil prices on Russia. “If we view, let’s say, the price for copper is 5300 dollars and it is dropping day by day, then the 1.5% forecast by Fitch is optimistic. I do not think that a 1.5% growth will be provided by these prices. I think they will reconsider their ratings,” noted the economist. He tends to insist that a 0-1% growth will be provided in our country this year. “Because in contrast to Fitch, it should be noted that the Teghut copper and molybdenum plant does not give produce, although it is expected that in August and September month it will produce a concentrate, and the molybdenum concentrate is more expensive than the copper. If this happens, then the economy would be slightly improved, and there would be a slight activeness.”
Manukyan says that there is no expectation now from the tourism industry which usually has a positive scope in this season, while in the agriculture, there are certain positive trends, the production agricultural products is increased, as well as the export. The economist says that 0-1 and more percent growth can be considered a setback for our country because as a developing country with 0-1% growth we are quite behind the competing countries in the global market. As presented by Artak Manukyan, there will be an electricity price hike as of August 1, the prices will rise even after the audit with the “Electric Networks of Armenia”, and it is not clear whether the government will only compensate this additional 7 drams for the population or for the business, too. “In any case, the risks are growing after the electricity price hike, and the economic situation will become more deteriorated. We do not see any strategic direction that will have a positive impact on the growth of the economy.”
It is more talked that the lifting of sanctions against Iran will have a positive impact on Armenia, however, Manukyan believes that lifting of the sanctions will weaken Armenia’s positions. “If during the sanctions we had good neighbors for Iran, and there was a mutually beneficial dependence on us, then after the lifting of the sanctions, Iran’s dependence on us will fall. And if so far we have not developed our relations with Iran and have not set up a stable and joint production, then in the future, its likelihood will fall. In 2014, according to official data, the Iranian investment in Armenia amounted to 45 million drams, in other words, during the application of sanctions, we, as a beneficial neighboring for Iran, have not tried to develop economic relations,” said Manukyan.
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To our observation that failure to establish economic relations with Iran is more of a political decision, ultimately, we are an EaEU member country and we give a preference to Russia also on economic matters, Manukyan noted, “In the economic and political aspects, a strategy should be implemented in contrast to Russia, but we always, as a country, prefer the dependence on Russia, by undermining the economic interests. Now, there is a possibility for Armenia to be a springboard for the European countries to penetrate to the Iranian market, but this also should be in contrast to Russia’s aspirations. The more diversified is the economy, the weaker will be the impact of any country on our economic and political aspect and the dependence on any country. So far, we do not see any moves in this direction.”
Recently, the government decided to suspend inspections in business for 6 months. In response to our question of whether this is a sufficient step to activate the economy, Manukyan says, “Certainly, it is a positive step, but the government does not conceal the fact that there is much shadow with the major taxpayers, and by the suspension of such inspections, they will just help the small and medium entrepreneurs not to emigrate and keep their viability, but it will not have a major economic impact, we cannot expect a serious effect. It is very important that this suspension is accompanied by the improvement in tax administration and simplification of the tax burden. The entrepreneurs always say and also the international structures note that the tax and customs procedures and prices are a problem.”
Nelly BABAYAN,
“Aravot” daily
