Despite Armenia’s economic situation was slightly better in February than it is now, the Fitch international rating agency predicts a 1.5% growth in GDP in our country for 2015, while the forecast in February was a 0.5% decline.
Mesrop Arakelyan
In the conversation with Aravot.am, economist Mesrop Arakelyan reminded that the 1.5% growth is also predicted by the government’s medium-term program, but if we recall the predictions of other international organizations, even though they are different, the forecast is -1 or zero growth, but the predictions from -1 up to 1% we should consider them in the total. “Our economy is quite small, and predicting such variations is quite complex, and by and large, 1% -1.5% for a country like ours cannot be considered a growth. In this view, Fitch, I think, used the indicators of the first half of the economic growth by the National Statistical Service (NSS). Our problems in the economy are increasingly growing and become more profound, but according to the NSS data, but we have a quite high rate of economic activity – 3.8%, but it is noteworthy that in the event of such a high growth, we are having a decline in tax revenues. In other words, if the economy is growing, why the taxes are falling, at the same time we have a reduction in foreign commodity turnover, 10% reduction in exports and more than 35% reduction in imports.”
Arakelyan said that the remaining economic indicators, if we view them in a whole, the situation in Armenia is not positive. As presented by the economist, predicting 0.5% growth in February this year and 1.5% growth now, and if we consider that the situation in Russia, of which we are largely dependent, is worse, this speaks to the fact that Fitch simply looked at NSS data, which unlike, to put it mildly, non-favorable situation in economy, a 3.8% economic activity is reported. If the NSS is working by this logic, then Arakelyan does not exclude that NSS would report more than 1.5% economic growth.
As said by economist Mesrop Arakelyan, Armenia’s economic situation is likely to turn to worse in the coming months. “Because the external signals leave major consequences on the activeness of our economy, the remittances are falling, to the point, our economy is greatly effect by the international metals prices, the mining companies are very big in the production share of our economy, they make the overwhelming part in the export sector, and in recent day, we are witnessing the sharp decline in international prices of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The prices have reached the minimum of the last 5-6 years, the prices of the global crisis in 2008-2009. If we add this indicator parallel to the rest of the problems, then they will have a serious impact on our economy in the near future.”
Nelly BABAYAN
