“If Russia has twice gone bankrupt and there is no money, then based on what it should be good.” Ara Papian
Today, Director of “Modus Vivendi” Analytical Center, also political scientist Ara Papian, referring to the Armenia-Iran relations, said that the Armenian side should make efforts for the operation of Georgia-Armenia-Nakhichevan-Iran railway, “It is very beneficial for Armenia. If Azerbaijan agrees to run, it means that Armenia will be disblockaded, if not, it will attract all the forces against that are interested in the operation of the railway. If we do not show initiative, we can be late.”
According to Ara Papian, people were excited saying that now we join the EaEU and the 170-million dollar market is opened up before us and Armenia becomes a paradise. “But today, we had quite the opposite effect. Compared with the first semi-annual, we have collected revenues less than 150 million dollars. Therefore, the improvement of Iran-West relations was God’s grace. This is our chance, but the chance can remain a chance if you are unable to use it.”
To the question of whether Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union will not cause problems in the relations with Iran, he replied, “Of course, it will and causes problems. We need to clearly understand that when you’re a member of the EaEU, the Armenia-Iran border ceases to be an Armenia-Iran border, it becomes an EaEU border with appropriate procedures. We should be able to find out the modus to work with Iran. Iran now should supply gas to the world, and we will stay detached from all of it because we have not led the right policy. Yes, there is a clash of interests between Russia and Iran. And the optimism that they say that it would be good, first of all, here are serious people in Iran and they know how to calculate.”
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To the observation of Aravot.am that the economists assure that it is still too early to make estimations about our membership to the EaEU and the Union is still in the phase of formation and we have not become adapted to it, Ara Papian replied, “Generally, when someone enters into a Union, all of that is planned in advance. The EU documents consisted of more than 1000 pages and everything was negotiated. First, you negotiate and then access. I do not know what will happen tomorrow. They say that it would be good and I say that it would be bad. It is not by saying, there is a fact. The fact is that our trade with Russia has dropped by 40%, because the purchasing power of the Russian ruble has dropped twice. There are people who have taken goods to Russia and now they bring it back because it is not convenient for them to sell by this price. I do not know the grounds of their optimism, but one thing is obvious, the oil and gas prices are falling. The Russian budget has calculated 96 dollars per each barrel of oil, but as of today, Russia’s budget is down by twice. Now, if Russia has twice gone bankrupt, there is no money, then based on what it should be good.”
Hripsime JEBEJYAN
