“The EaEU prospects were closed because of the policy led in Ukraine”, – so responded Paul Stronski, a senior associate in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, in response to the question of Aravot.am about the reasons for the Russian isolation and the European Union “project” having reached a deadlock is recently talked more often and among wider circles.
During the online press-conference under the project “The “Dialogues” International Press Club: For the diversification of international information sources for the Armenian media”, supported by the OSCE Office in Yerevan, in response to our question, Mr. Stronski detailed, “The use of force by Russia against Ukraine cause a problem for Kazakhstan and Belarus, which generated commercial disputes within the EaEU.”
Back to Armenia’s accession, the expert noted, “From the viewpoint of economic efficiency, I think Armenia’s accession to the EaEU was less beneficial, moreover, Russia’s economic crisis leaves an impact on Armenia’s economy.” The expert notes that the level of tension within the Eurasian Economic Union is quite high and the Union probably will exist only on the paper. Mr. Stronski concluded, “The EaEU expects the same fate as to the CIS or CSTO, in other words, it would be only a symbolic regional integration organization and nothing more.”
Our observation that some experts express concern that Russia is a serious obstacle for the establishment of Iran-Armenia relations, Paul Stronski countered, “Russia has a dominant role in Armenia’s economic investments and aims to make investments also in Iran after the lifting of the sanctions. I do not think that official Moscow will express against the Armenian-Iranian transactions if they do not conflict with Russia’s interests. On the contrary, given Russia’s dominant role in strategically important sectors of Armenia’s economy, these transactions can be useful for Russia.”
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To the question about what solutions he sees in the Karabakh peace settlement in the event of bellicose rhetoric by Azerbaijan, Mr. Stronski replied, “The Karabakh peace settlement has nothing to do with the EaEU membership, however, Armenia’s accession to this structure became complicated because of the existence of this conflict. Azerbaijan showed through the Kazakhs that the prospects of Armenia’s and de facto Nagorno-Karabakh’s accession to the EaEU is not dear to his heart. While Baku’s rhetoric is certainly concerning.” Mr. Stronski thinks that Azerbaijan would hardly access the EaEU without the settlement of the conflict although it would be very desirable for Russia. Paul Stronski has no particular expectations from the upcoming September meeting of the Presidents of the Republic of Armenia and the Russian Federation in terms of the conflict settlement.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
