A strategist about the recent days’ incidents on the border
Strategist Karen Vrtanesyan, on these days when the situation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is tense and border villages are shelled, does not see any serious tension among the society. “Some media outlets, of course, are trying to escalate the situation by putting such titles as: “Urgent. Tense situation” and so on, however, specifically on the border zone, despite the shelling, I cannot say that a panic has begun,” said K. Vrtanesyan in the conversation with “Aravot”. Vrtanesyan. He mentions that it was not news for them that Azerbaijan is trying it best to escalate the situation, “They are periodically trying to escalate, and then at some point they realize that they would not be left unpunished and freeze the situation for some time, calm down and then resume when an appropriate occasion arises, says the strategist noting that Azerbaijan’s goal is to exert psychological pressure on the population in the border zone and generally in Armenia, also intermediary, they are trying to exert pressure for the Armenian authorities to go for concessions. Of course, this does not mean that the pressure is purely virtual, the pressure is exerted by shelling the residential areas populated by peaceful inhabitants.”
Mr. Vrtanesyan notes that on the other hand, Azerbaijan also has border populated areas, but it seems not to be so much bothered about the peace of the population there. “This problem can be solved once and forever if a security zone is established near the borders with Armenia: Tavush and Gegharkunik marzes,” says Mr. Vrtanesyan. He believes that escalation on the border is also associated with Shant-2015 Military Strategic Command and Staff Exercises currently going on in Armenia. “Although I do not think that if it were not for the exercises, Azerbaijanis would not commit such actions. Importantly that any of their action receives an adequate response, and actually Azerbaijan realizes very well that nothing is left unanswered,” he says, adding that these exercises every time make the opponent realize that any of its aggression and encroachment will be a failure.
The strategists, however, believes that in any case, we need to be alert, he cites the ancient Roman persuasion: if you want peace, prepare for war. Mr. Vrtanesyan explains Azerbaijan’s using large-caliber weapons as follows: “Azerbaijan’s any provocation is directed at us, we are its audience. This audience over the time gets tired and does not want to read this news. In the past, when it was written that a sniper fires at a village, there was a fuss, and then since the threshold of this fortitude is raised, they have to go for escalation by using larger caliber weapons and making more scandalous provocations and actions. But, on the other hand, this cannot go last long, this can lead to a war, but they do not rush to enter into war. Their goal is to weaken use by pressure. But a moment comes and they step on a brake,” he says.
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Karen Vrtanesyan notes that neither the armed forces not the population in Azerbaijan are particularly excited by the military actions. “Last year, in August, the situation was as such that their special detachments were refusing to participate in military operations as it does not give any military achievement. It is merely a propaganda operation, and they naturally do not want to die for it,” says Mr. Vrtanesyan. To the question of “Aravot” of whether this situation will switch into a war, our interlocutor replies, “In my opinion, we need to understand that war is quite possible in our region, it often happens that a peaceful situation all of a sudden turns into stormy events, like the incidents in Georgia in 2008, or Turkey that was peaceful several years ago, but as soon as diversions occur along the borders of Armenia, there are shootings, explosions, etc., the same is happening in Syria and Ukraine. We need to understand that war is a part of our life with very high probability.”
HRIPSIME HOVHANNISYAN
“Aravot” daily
