According to the political scientist, Armen Grigoryan, Russia’s escalation of the last days will become a reason for imposing more humiliating conditions to Armenia.
– On September 3, it has been two years since Serzh Sargsyan stated that Armenia will join the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Are two years enough to observe what Armenia gained and lost by accessing this Union?
– With your permission, I will reformulate the question. If we readdress the question to the citizens of what they won from the EaEU accession, what they will answer honestly. Do all those who are living on remittances win or lose as a result of growing dependence on Russia? As a result of this growing dependence, did those who are living in the neighborhood of the military base in Gyumri, residents of border villages whose houses were shelled again a few days ago, as well as other citizens feel improvement in terms of promised security by the supporters of the EaEU membership? The entrepreneurs engaged in export were promised a market worth of 170 million. What did they get? What is the situation in the small and medium businesses? It there an improvement? Was the price for gas cut down? And what about the electricity? And so on and so forth.
– Russian President Vladimir Putin as introduced a bill to the Russian State Duma, which suggests abandoning the US dollar in the CIS. This law stipulated creating a common financial market between Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and other CIS countries. With this bill, Putin recommends creating a mechanism that will allow abandoning the dollar and euro during the calculations as an “intermediate currency”. What risks is our country fraught with once passing this bill?
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– Putin’s next idea is not surprising given his peculiar visualizations about the economy. For example, the fact that price reduction in oil should lead to reduction in demand for dollar and depreciation, or the fact that the devaluation of the ruble is useful because the budget revenues and the exporters’ income are “growing” in this case. Event in the case of the mentioned bill, Putin seems does not realize that this problem cannot be settled by the law passed by the State Duma in his pocket. There will be a need for an international treaty, and most likely, the countries that are capable not to subdue to Putin’s military blackmail would simply refuse to even discuss it. A columnist of “Jamestown Foundation”, also a political analyst, Armen Grigoryan, said that the prospect for Armenia is more gloomy, because Putin’s government and opposition subservient perhaps would not refuse to fulfil his demand in this case too. In the case of making the payments only in rubles, the exports to Russia, which is increasingly falling since January, may generally cease.
– Iran and Armenia have signed a new agreement in Tehran on building the 3rd high voltage power lines. Tehran is implementing the first step in the direction of its oil and gas exports. Iranian Ambassador to Armenia, Mohammad Raiesi, referring to the possibilities incurred in the Iran-Armenia relations, said that he considers the Iranian gas transit to Europe possible. There are two ways of Iranian gas transit to Europe: Turkey and Armenia-Georgia. Do you see a possibility of implementation of such project in Armenia?
– The right to the exploitation of high voltage power transmission line is already handed over to the Russians by the Government Decree. In other words, the Government of Armenia determined continues its usual anti-state policy. As for the possibility of constructing a gas pipeline, it is purely theoretical. Obviously, in the case of lifting the sanctions against Iran, Russia will not be able to oppose the Iran-EU cooperation, however, with the help of its local subservient, it can easily continue the policy of Armenia’s isolation, which is also beneficial for Turkey for transit of the gas line thru its territory. In addition, Armenia’s local authorities have repeatedly proven their being an untrustworthy partner or have directly cheated their partners. One can at least recall the story related to diminishing the current diameter of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, then handing it over to Russia as a property, or the refusal of the EU Association Agreement. And even if Russia formally hampers the construction of the new Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, the EU and possibly also Iran would not be interested in it unless they have guarantees that it will not be extradited again to Russia in the future by the next “property for debt” or another scheme, and the guarantee given by the Government of Armenia will simply not cost a penny in this respect.
– How do you determine the intensifications in the front line since late August? What is Azerbaijan trying to achieve? Do you consider the outbreak of full-scale hostilities possible?
– The matter is not what Azerbaijan is striving to achieve but also Russia is trying to achieve. Perhaps, above all, Russia. For Russia, the recent intensifications will once again be a reason for imposing further humiliating and dangerous conditions to Armenia thru the war blackmail. The outcome of S. Sargsyan’s recent visit to Moscow will soon be evident. In its turn, Azerbaijan, on the one hand, solves this issue of enhancement of the regime thru military hysteria, but, on the other hand, it solves a larger, international significance problem. With direct assistance of Russia, Armenia’s isolation is deepened, contributing to the fact that it friend Turkey becomes a major beneficiary of the future EU-Iran cooperation. As for the large-scale military operations, they are less likely, because the large-scale hostilities are beneficial to Armenia’s actual opponents to the extent that they can contribute to the surge in oil prices. This problem can be solved particularly in Syria and Iraq, and in perspective, further destabilizing the situation in the Middle East. In this case, Russia may get another pleasant “bonus”, furthermore contributing to the growth of the flow of immigrants to the EU. At the same time, the large-scale military operations should not take place in the territory of one of Armenia’s opponents so that its own infrastructures are not destroyed. Thus, Azerbaijan would like to impose Armenia thru Russia not to resists rather than passing to a broad-scale attack, with the expectation of response actions.
Emma GABRIELYAN,
“Aravot” daily
