The reproduction of the system does not depend on them.
Constitutional amendments referendum will be conducted this year in the fall or in winter of next year, a new Basic Law will be adopted. By this law, parliamentary elections will be held in the spring of 2017, which will result in an absolute majority for the Republican Party, which will form the government. Serzh Sargsyan will lead the Republican Party list but will give up his mandate. During the year of 2017, the law will undergo changes in a way that the refused person can somehow appear on the party list. After April 9, 2018, Serzh Sargsyan will again be included in the list of Republican Party and will become a Member of the National Assembly and then a Speaker of the Parliament and thus will maintain his power.
That is why a part of the opposition is against the constitutional amendments. Do the president and the ruling party have such a tricky and I would say, “fuzzy” multi-step program? My opposition friends claim that they have received such information from their “spies” in the power camp. This scenario seems fantastic to me primarily because I’m of better opinion about our opposition … than the opposition itself. According to this scenario, the opposition loses on every position and is unable to show any resistance, it defeats in the referendum, it defeats in the parliamentary elections, it defeats in the parliament.
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I do not think that this is possible even if we assuming that the government has such plans, on which I also highly doubt. If the opposition is so weak, then nothing would hurt to change the Constitution so as to eliminate the ban on the third term. I do not think also that further steps need to be made based on the presumption of your own weakness and only given the alleged and hypothetical intentions of the opponent. It is the same as you think during the chess game or, better to say, guess what “combinations” your opponent is elaborating and spend all your efforts and energy only on breaking them down, and you will fail to elaborate any “combination”. “Now, the people will make a fist, come out into the streets and will put an end to the dictatorship,” this is not a “combination”, this is more a “mantra”, an “affirmation” that is repeated over 20 years. In 1995, the ARF and NDU leaded masses, by several thousands, were wondering along the streets of Yerevan, chanting, “de-lete the yes,” meaning the constitutional referendum, because, according to them, the adopted Constitution perpetuates Levon Ter-Petrosyan dictatorship. The future process of the events is known.
But for Armenia, these games that are played by our government and opposition figures over two decades have a secondary importance. Whether the Constitution will be changed or remain the same, whether there will be a change of regime or a “preservation of regime”, it by and large will give nothing. If tomorrow the most-most-most radical opposition becomes a president (Prime Minister, NA Speaker), let’s say, Jirair Sefilyan, it’s all the same, the SYSTEM will be reproduced. Because we are the producer rather than the persons and the parties. And we have an extremely negligent attitude towards written and unwritten laws. We are speaking about “law” and “justice” by using these terms to all people and phenomena but not us.
And all of this is coming from the lack of trust. We do not trust the government and the opposition because they do not trust each other. We do not trust each other because we do not trust ourselves.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
