Military expert Karen Vrtanesyan argues that nothing prevents the OSCE Minsk Group to find out how the border violence has occurred
Note that today the OSCE Minsk Group had responded the tense border situation with sober calls to both parties and declaring that they were unable to precisely determine how the border violence has occurred, as each side accuses the other. “I am amazed at their saying that they are unable to determine who has done what, for one of the purposes of their existence is the very fact to understand who did what. If they are unable to understand, maybe they should hire other specialists. Let them come, determine, understand what comes after what. The shot consequences are not something that one cannot distinguish the shot tracks done one month ago from the tracks done yesterday. Simply, until the co-chairs come together with bureaucratic mechanisms, they can come a month later,” said the expert.
He conditions the response of the OSCE Minsk Group with the contrast of domestic political interests. “Each country has different interests, there is an internal conflict of interests. Russia, US and France are countries with different interests, often contrary to each other.”
Back to the statement of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, which say that the Armenian side is going to provocations, and the threats found in this statement, Mr. Vrtanesyan continued, “In addition, there were threats addressed to the Armenian residential settlements and infrastructures, the OSCE group had to consider these threats, if they do not see it, then, to put it mildly, it is quite amazing.”
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The expert does not believe that the border situation will escalate to the extent that it will turn into large-scale operations. “I do not believe in the full-scale operations, it is less likely that for Azerbaijan to go for such a move, because Azerbaijan and the Aliyev clan have much to lose, but the fact that they pass to a higher level of violence during each phase of escalation, it is a fact. It is very likely that at some point, they might not be able to control the process and appear in the center of unexpected activities for them.”
He also does not consider it accidental that the escalation of the situation by Azerbaijan was preceded by the meeting of foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan planned in New York. “This connection is actually pointed out by the representative of RA Defense Ministry’s Foreign Ministry, thus, it is quite vivid, how there should be no connection, they went for these actions the very previous day of the meeting. The main purpose is the psychological pressure to extract concessions from the Armenian side.”
Arpine SIMONYAN
