In 2015, Armenia to spend 3,000 dollars less every day
Last week, on 14 October, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) made optimistic forecasts regarding the economic growth in Armenia, saying that most likely it will be 1-3%. Some economists, however, do not agree with EBRD and also other international financial institutions’ forecasts. In an interview with Aravot.am, economist Vilen Khachatryan expressed an opinion that recently, the international organizations like the IMF and the EBRD are forecasting positive scenarios for Armenia’s economy, which is not so realistic.
In his words, “Although to admit that 2,5-3,5% economic growth is not so true for Armenia, because if we calculate it in terms of dollars, then the 2,5-3,5% growth for 10 billion GDP equals to 250 -300 million US dollars in development, these are not the amounts in the economy that can solve problems and especially to ensure progress that can affect the economy or the population. Therefore, the level of trust among the population in the economic growth is low for the simple reason that the majority of consumers do not feel it on themselves. Various polls about economy suggest that only the 5-10 percent of the population feel this growth.”
As for the grounds of ensuring given economic growth, according to Vilen Khachatryan, if we compare this “300 million” growth to how much debt is expected that Armenia should take on as of the end of 2015, while the indicators stated in the budget message is 680 million USD, we see that our economy is developing by 300 million and the debts are increasing by 680 million. “This means that on an annual basis, in 2015, the debt increases by 380 million dollars. Can this be called an economic growth? I think is can be worded as a period of debt-growth. If the economic growth by its paces exceeds the debt, in other words, less is borrowed than the economic growth, this would be a different indicator because on the account of taken debt it shows that we have an economic growth.”
Read also
Mark Davis, the Head of the EBRD office, indicates that EBRD forecasts a 4% decline for Russia’s economy, while 1-3% growth for Armenia, in the event when the economy of Armenia is greatly dependent on the Russian economy, Mr. Khachatryan illustrated only one or two indicators, which made it clear how much losses Armenia has suffered due to the reduction of transfers and imports. “As of the first half of 2015, the transfers are dropped by about 250 million US dollars. In other words, this already speaks of a large decline in purchasing power. As for the imports, in months of January and August, it has dropped by 740 million dollars. If I convert it by daily basis, then by a 4-member family-run it turns out that every day, about 3,000 dollars less is spend in Armenia, every person has spent 1 dollar less per day, and by the scale of 7 months, each person has spent 280 dollars less, and by family – 1,000 dollars less. With such indicators, we can say that our welfare has dropped. It is declined as much as the volume of our commodity turnover, as much as the volume of imported goods. Our economy is growing in slower paces than the global economy.”
Lusine BUDAGHYAN
