According to the Director of the Armenian Center for Political and International Studies, Aghasi Yenokyan, Ara Abrahamyan “becomes a bludgeon over Serzh Sargsyan’s head.”
– Mr. Yenokyan, recently, URA President Ara Abrahamyan submitted a claim to make Armenia a “democratic, free and independent state”, and in the meantime, he might establish a political party, which will take part in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Leaving aside the issue of having the right to opening a political party or not, how do you explain this “Russification” process of the political field in Armenia?
– Whether he has the right to open a political party or not, it is a secondary issue, because there will always be ways either to acquire the right or appear without the right, intermediary. The most important problem is purely the fact that Russia is sending to Armenia oligarchs on a business mission. I do not want it limited it to only Ara Abrahamyan, we see that Samvel Karapetyan is running active operations in Armenia, recently he called his investments a charity, and it is already a claim for political activities. Again, a Russian tycoon Ruben Vardanyan is running active operations in Armenia. Hence, it already becomes a serious tendency.
– What dangers is this phenomenon fraught with in terms of Armenia’s development? Armenia accesses to the Eurasian Union, now Russia’s oligarchs are settled in Armenia’s political field. Does not the government strengthen its position further?
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– This is just an additional guarantee by Russia. The politics in Armenia would a single vector, and this vector will be the Russian. It is the replication of the same scheme, the same, which was done headed by Gagik Tsarukyan – a quartet, a trio and later obscure formats. The problem was as follows: they show Serzh Sargsyan, hey, look at these ones, if you do otherwise than we dictate you, the next day these ones will come to power …
In other words, the problem is not with Armenia, nor the vector of the power in Armenia, the government will always have the same vector, simply there will be different performers. Regardless whether Ara Abrahamyan’s political party will be a pro-government or an opposition, Ara Abrahamyan becomes a bludgeon over Serzh Sargsyan’s head.
– Ahead to the referendum on Constitutional amendments, how do you assess the political atmosphere? What is the degree of public interest in this process? What are the positions of the government and the opposition?
– We are going to the referendum on Constitutional amendments completely unprepared. I’m not afraid to say that the 99% of the overwhelming majority of the population is unaware what the matter is about and cannot even be aware of, because this borsch that is served, in other words, to vote for a whole Constitution in one day is simply impossible, because there are many provisions that are acceptable, many things are not clear and unacceptable. Hence, to say with one vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to everything is impossible. The authorities have cooked this meal, and they are totally ready to receive their “yes”.
The opposition is going to be the constitutional amendments completely unprepared, up to the extent that we can now question the existence of the opposition in Armenia in general. The opposition is possibly split, numerous fronts are created, the members of these fronts do not even remember which of these fronts they are enrolled. Naturally, they cannot initiate any serious obstacle to the referendum.
– Iran’s first vice president Eshaq Jahangiri visited Yerevan. What is the current level of the Armenian-Iranian relations? One gets an impression that the main debated prospect in the Armenian-Iranian talks is the fact of Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union and the “new door” that can be opened on this basis for the development of economic relations between the two countries. While it is not excluded that in the near future, we will witness how Iran is implementing serious projects with our other neighbors.
– We already are witnessing it: Astara (Iran) – Astara (Azerbaijan) railway construction project already is there. The Iranians, who had come to Armenia, now move their business to Georgia. Armenia draws a very ambitious plan – to become a platform in the Iran-EaEU relations, but Armenia does not have any real potential for it, first of all, it does not have a political potential, because Armenia’s political-economic structure is as such that this country is extremely unattractive to all kinds of investors.
In in the political sense that they will allow Armenia to run an independent foreign policy, we see that it is a dream. The Iranian side has offered Armenia numerous projects, moreover, they have found financial sources, but Armenia has done none of them.
I think that the main reason for it is that Russia does not want to lift Armenia’s isolation nor Iran’s isolation. This is an important issue for Russia, and it will not allow Armenian major progress in Armenia.
– EU Foreign Affairs Council gave an official mandate to the European Commission to commence serious negotiations on a new agreement with Armenia. Politically, one can assume that the RA authorities will assume certain commitments, but economically, how free Armenian can feet in the event of Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union when defining the relations with the EU.
– Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union is extremely comprehensive and compelling in the economic sense, and fewer opportunities are granted to Armenia for working with the EU. It is another problem that the EaEU’s structure is not effective, and Armenia can find some holes, but I do not think we will make use of it. In this process, it is important that the Europe has not closed the window of the opportunities, and I think that these negotiations will last until Armenia will eventually be able to come out of the EaEU-called quandary. In any case, the positive thing is that Armenia will not be unprepared for the future political developments.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
