There are people in Armenia who are so fond of Putin that they go and kneel in front of the Russian Embassy thanking for this country’s combat operations going on in Syria. The scene reminds me of the first act of Mussorgsky’s “Boris Godunov” genius opera when the “police officer” makes people glorify the new king. This does not mean that participating in the Syria conflict was a wrong move, the matter is just about the tradition shaped over the centuries.
However, there are people in Armenia who hate Putin to the extent that every other day they forecast that Russia will be destroyed in the near future. It is here that I can say with confidence that no such strongly undesirable occurrence for us will happen. “Disorderly times” (like, incidentally, in Russia at the beginning of the 17th century), very likely will happen, because this country does not have an internal “antidote” against “pitcher”. There are no institutions, first of all, the fair elections and serious counterbalance parliament that will exclude the palace coups. But no destruction anticipates Russia, the people of our friendly country will overcome the subsequent crisis, the elite will start to think again about the reforms, which, of course, will be a failure. And so on. However, I dare to forecast with 100 percent accuracy that in the nearest historical perspective, Russia will remain as a unified state with its current borders.
Political scientists and politicians do not like to make projections (once, one of them has said, “I am not Vanga, am I?”), they are afraid to be mistaken, therefore they are limited to vague wordings, “time will tell”, “making forecasts is not grateful task.” But since I am neither a politician nor a political scientist, I want to make one forecast. In spite of calculations by some of my friends, under no Constitution, the Speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia will not rule the country, regardless of whether he will be a “GenSec” or not. It is excluded for our RA NA Speaker conducts negotiations with the Putin or let’s say Aliyev on behalf of our country. In the modern world, there is no such precedent. It is also excluded that he will have the country’s economic levers in his hands. No configuration of a state governance, no arrangement of the real situation will ever give such an opportunity.
This does not mean that the current Constitution should be amended. Perhaps, I may again express not a people-pleasing thought that Armenia does not need any “external” change, it will not bring any good or bad consequences, just a loss of time and efforts. Our society needs to be changed inwardly, with its mentality and the world outlook. And it requires time and patient and calm explanatory assignment.
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Aram ABRAHAMYAN
