Economist Tatul Manaseryan forecasts 4% economic growth by the year-end. “Last year, there could be no forecasts of internal shocks at this time, this year, developments are still possible. But if we hypothetically say that the current conditions remain and the development trends are not changed, I do not rule out that the 4% economic growth would be realistic,” said the economist. To our question why the international financial institutions changed their estimations made at the beginning of the year regarding the economic growth in Armenia, Mr. Manaseryan explained that the forecasts by the international structures are political in nature. “The last year-end, when the forecasts by the international organizations were voiced, I countered and tried to substantiate my data, the National Monetary Fund even treated my opposing badly, but in the summer, they already revised their estimations.
Forecasts are politicized in nature, in other words, everything is tried to associate with Russia-Armenia federation and project it on our economy. I’m not saying that we do not have strong Armenia-Russia ties, on the contrary, we have very strong ties, which are developing, but our economy has its own characteristics. It is the absence of dependence on exports of raw materials, is some ways, we can say that not only raw material is exported, but we also export finished products, comparatively, more diversified. Of course, I do not like Armenia’s GDP, but at least it is not comparable with Russia.”
The Economist noticed that when the Russian ruble was depreciated twice, Armenia’s national currency depreciation was up to twenty percent in the least. “There are counterbalancing factors that allowed Armenia’s economy to refrain from the shocks, the seasonal agricultural production, tourism growth and different circumstances. All this came to prove that we cannot politicize everything, the fact that Armenia is a member of the EaEU, it is not right to say that in this period, all backslides were expected. Because Armenia is refrained from even regional backslides.”
Mr. Manaseryan us sure that the negative forecasts by the international structures leave a negative effect on the businesses. “Armenia did not have such forecasts, the negative expectations would allow registering positive trends. I do not think that any business, on having a negative forecast by such prestigious organizations, will take the risk. What we have we can easily double, if they had not delivered this disservice to us.”
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Arpine SIMONYAN
