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Why Aliyev is nervous

November 02,2015 17:00

The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs’ visit to the regions is over. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and the Personal Representative of the OSCE current Chairman were received by Ilham Aliyev in Baku, voicing accusations to the right and left. He condemned not only the Armenian side but also the mediators. Aliyev was angry on Serzh Sargsyan’s recent statement that Nagorno-Karabakh is a part of Armenia. He has presented Armenia “a country dangerous for the region”. “The international community, in particular, the mediators did not adequately respond to the shootings of Armenia, and all of that casts a shadow on the mediation mission, according to Azerbaijan.”

The Azerbaijani Presidential Administration’s press release does not make it clear on what the mediators responded to the accusations addressed against them. But after the meeting with Azeri authorities, the OSCE Minsk Group US Co-Chair James Warlick noted that Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev expressed willingness to meet by year-end, as he said, the details of a possible meeting of the presidents is to be determined. “The presidents need to seek ways for the comprehensive settlement of the conflict, at the same time to discuss ceasefire violations in the contact line. Today, the situation is radically different from the situation that existed two years ago. For the first time, we witnessed the use of heavy artillery on the contact line, resulting in the deaths of civilians. The tension is increasing day by day. During their meeting, both presidents must discuss the escalation of the tension on the contact line,” said the US co-chair.

Later, Warlick estimated the situation in the contact line of the Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani armed forces “awful.” “If before we had questions as how dangerous this situation was, I can now tell you from my experience that the situation is awful.” He added that there is a need to find a lasting peaceful solution to the conflict.” “I was in a safe place with the co-chairs. However, two OSCE members were in a dangerous place and were looking for a place to hide. I am glad no one was injured. Such incidents are unacceptable. When we discussed the incident with the OSCE experts, they said that it was not possible to determine which direction the fire was opened. They are experts in this matter. I would like to stress once again that such incidents are unacceptable during the observation mission of the co-chairs,” said Warlick.

Note that on October 27, the Martakert-Tartar intersection, during the observation in the contact line of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani armed forces, which was also attended by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, a shelling was registered from automatic weapons. During the Co-chairs’ visit to the region, Baku officially emphasized the refugee issue. The representatives of an NGO in Baku called “Azerbaijani Community of Nagorno-Karabakh” expressed their dissatisfaction with the activities of mediators. “Sometimes, one can judge from your statement that you are thinking like Armenians,” – mentioned the representative of the union of refugees, Azerbaijani MP Elman Mammadov, in his speech addressed to the co-chairs. “As I said in Yerevan, as long as the problem of refugees is not solved, as long as they do not return to their native land, there will be no comprehensive solution,” said the US co-chair.

The French co-chair Pierre Andrieu assures that they understand the importance of the refugee issue in the context of the conflict settlement and they discuss it during every meeting. The OSCE Minsk Group Russian co-chair Igor Popov added that they have disagreements with the American and French colleagues pertaining to the international matters. “However, we are united in the matter on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.” During the meeting of the “Azerbaijani Community of Nagorno-Karabakh”, the Russian mediator noted, “all the co-chairs are inclined to the fact that the refugees must return to their native lands.” Prior to leaving for Baku, the co-chairs have left Yerevan for Stepanakert to meet with NKR President Bako Sahakian. As reported by NKR President’s Deputy Chief of Staff, David Babayan, the main issue of the talks was related to the situation on the borders and the tension on the border.

According to the official release, Bako Sahakyan has mentioned that Azerbaijan’s aggressive policy and rough violations of the ceasefire regime jeopardize the maintenance of peace and stability in the region. After the meeting with the NKR authorities, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have observed the situation in the contact line, which was ended with shelling from the automatic firearms by the Azerbaijani side, as reported by Nagorno-Karabakh Foreign Ministry. Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, in its turn, noted that the fire was opened by the Armenian side. Later, the US Co-Chair James Warlick addressed the incident in his Twitter microblog, “When we were crossing the Contact line, the shelling made the OSCE observers to find a shelter. That is unacceptable.” Aliyev’s nervous condition can be understood.

On November 1, Azerbaijan is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections. They will be conducted on the background of quite tough statements by the international community against Azerbaijan. The tension in the relations between Azerbaijan and the West is rather obvious. On the background of tension in the contact line over the past two years, Russia-Azerbaijan relations are becoming warmer and warmer. Baku has begun to more often officially talk about Azerbaijan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union. In a number of international matter with the US and French counterparts, Russia indeed has a lot of controversies, but whether Russia is united with the United States and France on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. To ensure the continuity of the Nagorno-Karabakh talks and calamity in the contact line is number one task of the mediators today.

Most likely, by year-end, after the Azerbaijan’s parliamentary elections on November 1 and the referendum in Armenia on December 6, Sargsyan and Aliyev will meet. For domestic consumption, actually, Aliyev’s campaign has produced “results”. In this country, the speeches of Aliyev about the “destruction of Armenia” and the “return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan” one day are accepted as an absolute truth. The snapshot is different in terms of international community. This, perhaps, is explained by the nervous posture of Aliyev, which in turn is a proof of the fact that the President of Azerbaijan has been subjected to certain pressures and is forced to make specific moves towards removal of the Karabakh talks from a deadlock, agreeing to continue the talks.

Emma GABRIELYAN,

“Aravot” daily

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