According to French-Armenian political scientist Gaïdz Minassian, “endlessly saying the mediators, look, Baku is resorting to provocations, Armenia will gain nothing, it is necessary to change the tactics”…
– A few days ago, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs visited the region. During the observation mission by their participation, shootings were heard in the contact line, and Armenia’s government did not accept the release summarizing the visit to the region, considering that an equal sign is put between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in particular, RA Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharyan mentioned, “The statements of impossibility to identify the infringer of the cease-fire by the mediators inspire the implementation of new provocations by the infringer.” Mr. Minassian, how can the organization of the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting by the end of this year be productive under the current atmosphere?
– The visit of the co-chairs to the region followed two objectives. Firstly, to do everything for the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet. The second objective of the mediators was to create an atmosphere of trust so that there will be a content in the talks. Since the first objective is a success: Sargsyan and Aliyev have agreed to meet by the end of the year, therefore, the co-chairs’ statement with regard to the incident of shootings was recorded neutral. Importantly now for the co-chairs to hold the meeting on the level of the presidents, and since they were able to reach agreement on the meeting, they have preferred not to talk about other details. However, this does not mean that the co-chairs do not know where the shooting are coming from, they simply do not want to hamper the negotiation process and do not want to fail the year-end meeting. The OSCE MG is doing everything to maintain the negotiations, Sargsyan and Aliyev meet often and in this sense they are right. The more are the meetings, the better. One remarkable fact was that the OSCE MG US Co-Chair Warlick called a press conference in Armenia alone, and I would like to know why he did not call a press conference in Azerbaijan, again, alone. Why, if maintain the balance is important for them?
– Is there a guarantee that if Sargsyan and Aliyev meet, the Azerbaijani authorities would refrain from their policy of keeping the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the contact line in tension? Eventually, can’t the international community influence on this threat leverage of hostilities?
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– The OSCE MG decisions are non-binding. Both Sargsyan and Aliyev know it. Azerbaijan knows that Europe needs oil and gas. The OSCE MG does not want to say that Azerbaijan is guilty, or Armenia is guilty. But the presence of the OSCE Minsk Group is important mostly for Armenia while Azerbaijan either wants to change the format or frustrate the negotiation process in general. Armenia has no other way, and in this respect, this is not a diplomacy by Armenia. Endlessly saying the co-chairing countries, look, Baku is resorting to provocations and implementing sabotage actions, Armenia will gain nothing. The tactics need to be changed.
– For instance, what are the steps for Armenia to initiate?
– In my opinion, first of all, Armenia should clarify its stance on what eventually it wants: a peace, agreement with Azerbaijan or continuity of the current situation. Continuing in this way means that both sides do not want peace but only gaining time. If the priority is peace, then Armenia should hand over its powers to Karabakh authorities as mentioned in the UN Security Council’s 4 resolutions and that’s it. Armenia should spread its influence on the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities. Armenia has the right to say that it hands over the responsibility to the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh. But we know what it will be followed by: Azerbaijan will announce its withdrawal from the negotiation process. Armenia is aware of this.
French-Armenian political analyst Gaidz Minassian
In other words, the solution of Nagorno-Karabakh is not in the hands of Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is in the realm of the international community: either a recognition of the independence, which will serve the interests of Russia, or Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh accession, which will serve the interests of the West.
Armenia should clarify its policy. The diplomacy of the Armenian side is to wait. They are waiting, but what they are waiting for. This is not politics, diplomacy and strategy. We won the war, today the army is on the border that protects our security and dignity, but it is not clear what Armenia’s diplomacy wants. If we keep waiting like this, we would defeat. What is being done for the recognition of Karabakh internationally?… I think we should just declare about Karabakh’s accession to Armenia. Today, we are paying for the major errors made during the first years of Armenia’s independence. Armenia’s ruling elites are responsible. In May 1994, Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a Ceasefire Agreement. This means that Azerbaijan directly recognized Karabakh as a sovereign power, why not, as an independent authority. What happened next? … We served the interests of Russia. Meanwhile, if only the interests of Armenia had prevailed, Karabakh would long ago be joined to Armenia. At that time, Azerbaijan was down on knees, Russia was weak, we could have had a decision in line with the interests of the Armenian side, but we didn’t. Now, we are paying for it. Now, we are in the process of negotiations, we do not know what our goal is but we continue to participate in the negotiations because there is no other way, it is good that the negotiations are going on, but the positions of Azerbaijan have become stronger than 20 years ago, the same for Russia, now, it is more powerful from the perspective of influence than 20 years ago. I want to say that you should direct your question to the authorities of Armenia, and not only the current authorities, but to everyone: Levon, Robert, and Serzh.
– Last week, Serzh Sargsyan was in Tbilisi on a working visit. There is no information about specific agreements, but Tehran keep saying that they consider the transit of Iranian gas to Europe likely. Will the EaEU accessed Armenian authorities be able to obtain an agreement with Tbilisi, and whether Russia would agree to such plan?
– At this moment, there is no information, but if Serzh Sargsyan has left for Tbilisi for this purpose, it is very positive, let’s hope that it is so, because if the purpose of this visit is the mentioned plan, then we need to wait for Georgia’s decision. Will Russia agree to such a plan, it is also unknown? Iran is an important factor on this matter. The initiatives voiced recently are exclusively not the wishes of Tehran, Tbilisi and Yerevan, but also the interests of China, and Russia would hardly wish to disrupt China’s plans. Next, when talking about new routes from Iran to Europe, we should also consider Russian-Georgian relations. 3 In other words, there are three problems: obtaining agreement between Armenia and Russia, next, the arrangements of China-Russia and thirdly, the possible agreement between Russia and Georgia. In other words, Russia has a decisive role in all three options, and as to what Russia wants, it is not clear.
– To what extent can Russia’s direct involvement in the Syrian crisis be a threat for the CIS and the security of our region? In recent days, Russian officials made statements about strengthening the CIS borders. On the other hand, Armenia, being a CSTO member, what should be our posture, given also the Armenian Diaspora in Syria?
– Armenia is in-between three wars: Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan. Russia is under a threat by the “Islamic state”, yes, but I do not think that Armenia is facing a similar threat. On the other hand, whether Russia does not exaggerate the factor of the “Islamic state”. Russia intends to enhance its influence in the region, and as long as it does not have sufficient means to return the former Soviet Union republics, it overvalues the factor of the “Islamic state” so that the countries in the region would feel certain intimidations and threats, and look at Russia as the guarantor of the security. As for Armenia’s posture for Syria, then it is too late, it should be thought about it earlier. There was no need to have a Ministry of Diaspora, it is a useless structure, we could have a national agency/department in different countries that will deal exclusively with the return people to Armenia and would truly deal with returning Armenians to Armenia and Artsakh. However, there is a Ministry of Diaspora, which only creates hope in the Diaspora, but there is no result.
Emma GABRIELYAN, “Aravot” daily
