According to columnist of “Jamestown Foundation” and political analyst Armen Grigoryan, instead of making conclusions about the same Azerbaijani “caviar diplomacy”, they are singing a song
– Mr. Grigoryan, Russian officials are voicing statements about strengthening the CIS borders. Russia is directly involved in the Syrian conflict, Russian air forces attack the “Islamic state” positions. To what extent is this a new challenge for Russia and the CIS in general? And are there dangers for Armenia as a region?
– The question is broad, and there is a need for separating it. First of all, about the CIS borders. Russia constantly, since the early ’90s, strives to implement the so-called control of the “CIS external borders”, in other words, the former USSR border, although it was not called a “Russian world” yet. Armenia was one of the countries which allowed it, and as a result, the borders with Iran and Turkey, as well as the “Zvartnots” airport are controlled by the Russians. Its consequences are known. In addition to explicit restrictions of Armenia’s sovereignty, they also include the provocations by the Russian special services, including the degrading treatment towards the NA MPs, the citizens of Armenia and other persons at the airport and so on. And now, the goal to “strengthen the borders” of the Commonwealth of Independent States in a number of authoritarian countries is to once again emphasize the presence of the “Russian world” at least symbolically.
Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict has already become a challenge for Russia, incidentally, this can have even worse consequences in the short term than the invasion to Afghanistan for the USSR as the USSR had the opportunity to prevent the implementations of terrorist activities in its territory. This still does not present a danger for the CIS and event the CSTO members, at least for the countries which are able to prevent Russia to drag them into its adventures.
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In this respect, Armenia must be careful because numerous episodes of loyalty to Russia could not but result in considering Russia’s vassal by others, the consequences of which is, for example, the border violation by the Turkish helicopters in response to the violation of the Turkish border by the Russian Air Force.
– A few days ago, Tbilisi hosted the Armenian-Georgian talks and Serzh Sargsyan met with the Georgian authorities. Earlier, Iran’s First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri had arrived in Armenia. Recently, the Azerbaijani President made an official visit to Tbilisi where he announced that his country “has” enough gas to supply it to Europe even 100 years later. Iran also announces that it is ready to sell gas to Europe, even if it is not profitable. There are two ways of Iranian gas transit to Europe: Turkish and Armenia-Georgia. In this regional “gas” curiosity, does Armenian have the potential to participate in beneficial initiatives for Armenia?
– Previously, there was an opportunity to address this problem. I can only repeat that Russia devoid of the opportunity to resist the Iran-EU cooperation, however, can again force its Armenian submissive not to participate in any project of gas transit. In addition, even if they do not formally impede this time, they will no longer be able to deceive Iran and the EU, in other words, to build a new pipeline and later to hand it over again to Russia’s possession. The Government of Armenia that has no reputation of a reliable partner is unable to guarantee that the next “property for debt” deal will not be concluded in the future.
– Mr. Grigoryan, the PACE Political Affairs Committee approved the British parliamentarian Robert Walter’s controversial draft report entitled “Rise in violence in Nagorno-Karabakh and other occupied territories of Azerbaijan”. What is this caused by, when under the considerable tough posture of the West towards Azerbaijan, however, such drafts are passed? What is the task of Armenia’s diplomacy? Could we avoid the adoption of such a draft?
“Jamestown Foundation” columnist, political analyst Armen Grigoryan
– When more than a year ago, H. Naghdalyan had a shameful speech at the PACE, which also had unfavorable consequences, it should already have become an alarm. However, no changes have taken place both in the staff of the delegation and the work style. The quality of the performed work has even become worse and one of its evidence is the silence of the Foreign Ministry to Azerbaijani military infringements. Instead of draw conclusions, both then and now the deceivers or the noncompos mentis are singing the same song about the Azerbaijani “caviar diplomacy”. It can be argued, however, that given the political background, including the closing of the OSCE office in Baku, the former US Ambassador’s proposal about imposing sanctions against some Azerbaijani officials because of the situation connected with the political prisoners, termination of cooperation with the Council of Europe on human rights sphere and so on, the adoption of such a report was possible only due to the inaction of the Armenian diplomacy connected with its absolute professional incompetence or considering the interests of the third party as a priority.
– EU External Relations Council authorized the European Commission to kick off negotiations with Armenia on a new framework agreement. It is expected that negotiations will be launched by the year-end. The European External Action Service (EEAS) Director for Russia, Eastern Partnership, Central Asia, Regional Cooperation and OSCE, Gunnar Wiegand, recently attending the regular session of Armenia-EU Partnership Committee, noted that he does not think that Russia will interfere in Armenia-EU negotiations. Mr. Grigoryan, how can this new opportunity ensure development to the citizens of Armenia?
– G. Wiegand’s statement clearly shows that the EU clearly realize the true vassal nature of the Armenian-Russian relations and the fact that by the permission of the Armenian political elite, the right of the decision-making is attributed to the Kremlin. It was also apparent by the words of another official, the leader of the EU Delegation and the Head of the Unit of Europe and Central Asia of Directorate General for Trade of the European Commission, Luc Pierre Devigne, when he said, “do not be afraid this time and sign the negotiated agreement.” There is no doubt that the EU clearly understands the nature of the Armenian political elite, along with pro-Russian real rather than “security” related reasons. On the other hand, the EU is not so consistent. The Eastern Partnership announced formula is “more for more”, but the Armenian officials are able to solve their personal problems by another formula, “everything for nothing”. Thus, so far, it is not clear what the citizens will obtain, it is likely that nothing or slight advantages like in the case of facilitating the visa procedure.
– Recently, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Yerevan and slammed the PACE Political Affairs Committee’s recently adopted report on Nagorno-Karabakh, saying that the Minsk Group co-chair countries are against moving the Karabakh issue to other platforms. On the one hand, this is a positive statement in terms of ensuring continuity to the process of Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process, but to what extent does Russia contribute to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
– As a co-chairing country, Russia officially remains as a supporter of the settlement within the OSCE Minsk Group. However, Russian analysts admit what officially is not announced: the settlement will quickly lead to the withdrawal of Russia from the South Caucasus. It is obvious that Russia has a dual, if not triple, role. Being a mediator, it also considers the region a temporarily detached part of the “Russian world” and is also the main supplier of weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan (and continuing the partnership with Azerbaijan in this sphere, also the direct responsible for the recent escalation of the situation and the possible future consequences). Russia will continue to exploit the conflict driven from its interests.
Emma GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily
