The escalation of relations between Russia and Turkey caused by the shooting down the Russian “Su-24” warplane by the Turkish armed forces does not promise any good to Armenia.
In an interview with Aravot regarding the worsening of Russian-Turkish relations and the situation of Armenia in this context, the Senior Analyst of the Center for Regional Studies, RA president’s special envoy (1992-1995), Head of Armenia’s National Security Service (1994-1995), David Shahnazaryan said,
– Russia air force in Syria has repeatedly violated the airspace of Turkey, for which Turkey has repeatedly reported and addressed a note to the Russian Federation, stating that in the case of recurrence, the offenders will not go unpunished, in addition, the issue was raised at the UN Security Council. On November 24, in essence, Russia tried to use the practice against Turkey, which it is using against many NATO countries for more than a year, when the Russian military air force was simply violating the NATO airspace, especially in the northern countries of the European Union. There have been dozens of such cases and they were left without any serious consequences. With these steps, Russia wanted to show that NATO is a weak and inefficient system. But as it turned out, it was not the case for Turkey. I think this was pre-agreed with key playing countries in NATO. Since 2008, when Russian troops intruded Georgia, Russia, in fact, was dictating the agenda in relations with the West. There is an impression that after this move of Turkey, the West, primarily the United States and some NATO members, would begin “playing with whites,” and they will dictate an agenda to Russia.
– Didn’t Russia know or believe that such a thing will happen?
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– Russia did not expect that Turkey will carry out its warning, it was more than unexpected for Moscow, now, the confrontation is getting deeper, in addition to all objective factors, there is also a subjective factor: Putin and Erdoğan are the bearers of such qualities, they are authoritarian-type figures, and they both have no place to withdraw. Russia demanded an “apology”, Erdoğan stated that there will be no “apology”.
– What do you think, will the Russian-Turkish confrontation be extended, or both sides, realizing that this tension is unnecessary for them in this situation, would be able to stop?
– Whether this confrontation will be on or eased, it’s hard to say, so far it has evolved and is fraught with the even more extreme escalation of geopolitical developments. I think a lot will depend on whether there will be a meeting with Erdoğan and Putin in Paris or not.
– Who does mostly lose in this situation?
– After the collapse of the USSR, there had not been such an explosive situation, and it is obvious that by and large Russia would lose. The confrontations can be extended to other countries of the South Caucasus, Russia may start operations in Crimea, not to speak about that Russia has no opportunity to avoid land operations in Syria. And polarization around Syria has become more severe. Azerbaijan has appeared in an unprecedented dire situation, which has recently expanded and deepened its cooperation with Russia in all spheres. And Turkey is its close ally. As a result of this confrontation, both sides can demand orientation from it, and in that case, it has no chance to win. At best, if possible, it should maintain neutrality, but it will be very difficult, it is no vain that Aliyev is trying to act as a mediator between Russia and Turkey.
– And what about Armenia?
– In both cases, Armenia is facing great danger, both when the Russian-Turkish relations are escalated and when they become overly close. Now, Russia is trying to use us against Turkey as it had done several times throughout our history. All of a sudden, a great “Armenian-loving” wave has been raised in Russian propaganda and government sectors, they are trying to introduce a legislative initiative criminalizing the denial of the Armenian Genocide, they are sending tourists… No way we should be encouraged, this can be a new threat for us, the Kremlin once again can use us as a tool against Turkey, which it can give to sacrifice later. We are used so obviously that it even hurts our dignity. Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft, they remembered us … But I would like also to note that along with these threats, now, Armenia’s role is again highlighted; we can become a serious factor in regional. It is no coincidence that under this difficult situation in these days, Ankara officially spoke of Armenia-Turkey relations.
– But if it comes to Armenia’s mind to begin any “talk” with Turkey, Russia will prevent it on the spot. As you have repeatedly mentioned, Armenia’s main foreign political and security elements are decided by Moscow.
– There were threats, but along with it, opportunities are opened before Armenia to become an independent player. We must take into account the reality that the current regime in Russia is no longer able to continue its existence without the West, primarily the constant confrontation with the United States. Russia will become increasingly weak, both politically and economically, it is inevitable. This regime can no longer survive with the West in peace, we need to take it into account, and the priority should be Armenia’s security. Let us not remain in-between the “Russian hammer” and the “Turkish dungeon” once again, along with new threats, unprecedented opportunities are created for Armenia to become independent and a major factor, our role has greatly signified. Let’s hope that the RA authorities will use it.
Melania BARSEGHYAN,
“Aravot” daily
