And supplement the rows of the “elite” group countries
In the 21st century, if the country’s economy is not built on selling oil or gas, then it is less likely that the regime is dictatorial. To exclude some exceptions, having no oil and gas, the authorities should try reaching an agreement with the citizens in one way or another. Certainly, this does not mean that the regime should necessarily be democratic, in other words, the citizens should decide by voting who will be their authorities. There is a huge “intermediate space” between the blissful state and the dictatorship, where the majority of 195 countries of the world (including unrecognized and dependents – 251) are located. We too, of course, are in this row, and there is also a diversity of shades and degrees in this “space” that almost do not repeat each other. As for Armenia’s dynamics, then in terms of only election and referendum, we have not yet created a new quality and are located in the frames of sad tradition created 20 years ago.
In short, we are among the “mediocre majority” of authoritarian states and have not crossed the line of democratic countries. Moreover, we are far away from it. To enter the upper, the “elite” group, we need a lot. First, we need to have the clear conviction by the majority of the society that a/ it is possible (“No, bro, we are not the people to be able to do it”), b/ it is necessary (“Well, what democracy, the king should take a good care of his people”). There is no consensus in society about the possibility and the necessity. Especially, the necessity. My impression is that the majority of Armenians are convinced that the economic and social problems can be solved without the democratization of our lives. A part of these citiznes bring the examples from other countries, who are generally correct. But what is true, for instances, for Belarus or China, is wrong for us. For Armenia, I am sure, first and foremost, is the solution of political matters, and the economic situation is its derivative. The vivid example of the lack of consensus on this matter is as follows: as we known, a part of the “no” propagandists were claiming that the “Soviet” system would be restored after the constitutional amendments. They, certainly, were stating it as a possible negative consequence. But one of the pensioners had perceived it as a return of the “bright past” and voted “yes” because the collective farms would be restored with the new Constitution.
Thus, the majority of the society’s conviction should be ensured as an important precondition that democracy is possible in Armenia and we need it. This is not available so far. It is a necessary but not sufficient condition. Afterward, this majority must be willing to take active operations to establish democracy. These actions may vary.
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1/ An armed struggle against the authorities. Leaving the legal and moral issues aside, the efficiency of this struggle, in terms of democracy, is highly questionable. If people come to power through an armed coup, then it is highly doubtful that they will be willing to establish democracy. It is much more predictable that they, on the contrary, would restrict the already restricted freedoms, roughly the same as Nairi Hunanyan or the “saviors of the nation” like him wanted to do it. In addition, the historical experience shows that one armed coup is followed by several other armed coups.
2/ a regime change by pacific and consistent pressure (a “color revolution”). This option is theoretically possible. However, its implementation requires millions of “investments” by the West to the opposition, which so far is not apparent. One of its disturbing factors is also the huge impact of Russia in Armenian reality. Eventually, whether the winner “color revolutions” established democracy in the country. It is the same as said by the strategic ally: it could go either way (бабушка надвое сказала)
3/ An explanatory work and as a result, the majority of our society will perceive the cause and effect connection of democracy and their prosperity. In parallel, establishment of real and functioning party structures by the opposition parties, which in addition to the traditional slamming addressed to the authorities, also will try explaining to the people what kind of country they want to build. The “critical mass” who believes this parties will go and vote as he thinks, the member and observer of such party committee will be impossible to intimidate, nor bribing. Thus, the regime change will be effective in Armenia which the Central Election Commission will register. And to appear in the group of democratic countries, we need several of such regime changes.
So far, I do not see preconditions that the beginning of it will set up in 2017-1918.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
“Aravot” daily
