Political analyst Tigran Abrahamyan about the tension growing on the border
– Just a few months ago, in an interview with “Aravot”, we had said that given the current realities, the day that Azerbaijan will use tanks in the frontline is not far away. Unfortunately, this forecast is now a reality. In your opinion, how far can our neighbor go? What else should we expect?
– Given the fact that the stakeholders involved in the negotiation process, particularly the international organizations, did not respond or commented in a general way, we should be ready that Azerbaijan would continue to expand its arsenal used against Armenia and Artsakh. With certain regularities, Azerbaijan will try to increase the pressure in the front line by conveying an additional tension to an already unstable situation. The currently observed intentions show that Azerbaijan, however, has no intention to stop. It is not excluded that in the coming months, a new and more dangerous weapons will be used in the front line.
– Some circles condition this escalation by the possible forthcoming meeting of the two countries’ presidents while some – by the escalation of Turkish-Russian relations. In your opinion, which factor is dominant here?
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– I think Azerbaijan’s tough and solid and increasingly radical maximalist posture in the negotiation process is dominant and the military line that advances the leadership of Azerbaijan forward. Certainly, conveying tension to the situation prior to the key meeting has become a kind of tradition for Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan’s provocations have a deeper nature.
– The Minsk Group continues its “oath of silence,” and the US State Department reps, unaware of the reality, send calls and accusations, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry cynically continues to direct the finger of blame for the border tension to the Armenian side. It is, however, remarkable one thing that referring to the use of tanks on the contact line a day before, Azerbaijani Defense Ministry announced that it has several times warned that if the ceasefire regime is violated by the Armenian side, their army, in compliance to the created situation, will open a relevant fire from more powerful weapons and will destroy the enemy’s firing points. Isn’t this a confession testimony? Can this be used in any way?
– Azerbaijan has become so obscene that not only speaks openly about the carried out provocations but also after carrying out, proudly speaks about them. There was a time when Azerbaijan was repeatedly denied its carried out ceasefire violations at the front line, but today, it seems it no longer need to “hide”. Nothing is left for Artsakh and Armenia than giving preventive strikes in a tough way. It should be noted that the main factor that restrains Azerbaijan is the Armenian army. The soldier standing at the border carries out his task fully, it is the most important thing at this moment.
– The Co-Chairs, as you know, are getting ready for the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is expected to take place by the end of the year. Given the bitter experience of previous meetings and their absolutely unimpressive results and Azerbaijan’s continuing tough stance, is there a sense to keep imitating that we are trying to negotiate and find a peaceful solution when soldiers are killed almost every day on the border?
– In any case, negotiating is better than war, and no need to use all efforts to settle down the problems peacefully. The meetings at the highest level – the presidents – may somehow, at least temporarily, relieve the situation on the front line. Bringing Azerbaijan to the negotiating table is the least that is possible to do on the way to leading the process exclusively peacefully.
Nelly GRIGORYAN,
“Aravot” daily
