Says political analyst Hayk Martirosyan
The tension on the contact line of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani armed forces maintains. The defense minister of Armenia confirmed recently at the parliament that this tension has reached its peak, which, according to Seyran Ohanyan, is the logical continuation of the policy led by Azerbaijan and leads to instability. The growth of tension, according to Hayk Martirosyan, is inevitable in the event of having neighbors like Turkey and Azerbaijan. The national and state ideology of Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem has not been changed, argues the doctor of political sciences. Perhaps one change and been taken place in the life of Azerbaijan’s elder brother over the last 100 years: it seeks to substitute the theory of Turkish Caliphate and empire with the theory of superpower influence by making efforts to restore the status of the superpower lost 100 years ago, on the way to destabilize almost all the neighboring countries.
Armenia, according to the political analyst, is the wedge that hampers the fulfillment of the Turkish national dreams. “The once Young Turks plan of a “Great Turkey” stretching from Bosporus to the Altay still exists and is more alive and sound than, for example, 50 years ago. And in terms of ideology, compared to the day before the Armenian Genocide, today, nothing has been changed in the Turkish-Azerbaijani mentality. Today, the region is in fire, an unprecedented fire, and in this conditions that, in fact, it is the third world war in a new appearance, Armenia cannot remain indifferent and irrespective of its will, not to be involved in the military situation,” said the political analyst, adding that in the event of sharp escalation of Russian-Turkey relations, Turkey and Azerbaijan will try to achieve the maximum dividend-share by also doing harm to Russia’s closest allies. And the most convenient targets, in this case, are the two Armenian states.
Azerbaijan is trying its best to keep the conflict active, and as predicted by the political analyst, this country will go to any actions if it sees the opportunity to achieve success at the moment. Currently, according to him, the main obstacle for unleashing large-scale military operations is Russia, Armenia’s closest ally. Azerbaijan’s alternative now is strongly pinching Armenia because to go for a large-scale war at this moment will mean an overly aggressive move against Russia, which, according to Martirosyan, would be one of the rare cases that Russia will simply go to a straight confrontation with Azerbaijan. In this country’s political and military ideology, according to the political analyst, the constant maintenance of tension is fixed by “iron letters”, and every Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting is an opportunity for resorting to a blackmail handwriting and trying to morally put pressure on the Armenian sides.
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“Moral pressure is one of the most powerful weapons of the war, in other words, literally, an act of terrorism is made against Armenia at the state level. Generally, the logic of terrorism is known: instilling fear among people and demoralization, which are mandatory conditions preceding the military victory,” analyzes the doctor of political sciences, adding that Russia having a very bitter experience recently after the warm flirtations, however, getting a treacherous attack from Turkey, will not endanger Armenia. Reporting the fact that Azerbaijan has started using tanks, mortars and heavy weapons, the political analyst thinks that with regard to the large-scale actions, in a short-term, at least for the next few months, Azerbaijan will show itself more restrained.
But according to him, dangers from the Turkish-Azerbaijani forces are always expected, including the point that Turkey will not even hesitate to direct, for example, the Islamists and nationalists that make an enormous presence in its territory to Armenia’s borders. They have penetrated to Iraq, a territory of a sovereign state, arming and financing Turkmen, they have made them their agents in the territory of Syria, – says Martirosyan and asks, – What prevents them to target on Armenia too. And regardless of the circumstance of what is the cause of the recent tension on the border, by the Russian-Turkish crisis, or, for example, by the situation going on in the Middle East, Martirosyan is sure that the hostility towards Armenia is nowadays more pronounced and they will not hesitate to strike us at the first possible chance.
We need to strengthen the state from inside and make the military cooperation active not only with Russia but also with the United States, and cooperate in a systemized way with the two key poles playing in the region, said Martirosyan in confidence. He explains that this simultaneous cooperation is possible and, in this case, beneficial for all sides because in the total the goal is one – the fight against extremist Salafism. The debates about the Islamic State are underway, and Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and many other armed Salafist, Wahhabi organizations are not mentioned that are dangerous for everyone, says the Doctor of political sciences, adding that Armenian cannot stay in the sheath forever, we cannot ensure our security by behaving us inert. “It is the greatest illusion, you cannot be in a burning building, in the flames of the fire and as long as the tongues of the fire have not reached you, you can feel secure that your apartment will not be in fire. The fire will get you for sure,” he says, arguing that our armed forces also need reforms today, we need to reform the system of military service and make the serving in the army 3 years, also recruiting women to the army, such as in the United States, Israel and other countries in the world. The political analyst also claims that it is necessary to establish a foreign legion and allow the foreigners also to serve in our army like the French “Foreign legion” in order to strengthen our army and add human capital under this low birth rate and huge emigration.
T. MURADYAN
“Aravot” daily
