But whether they can be only economic
There are some external signs, which most likely but certainly not with 100 percent accuracy show how given country lives. If the 3-meter statues and images of the first face of the country are erected in the streets or if the rating of is face is 80 percent high, then it is very likely that there is oil in that country and the regime is despotic. If these Cyclopean images are missing but the image of the first face is hanging on the wall in all big and small bureaucrats’ offices (starting from the ministers), then the regime is authoritarian. If there are no statues in the streets and no pictures in the cabinets, then it is very likely that the country either is democratic or is moving towards democracy.
There are also other patterns, I repeat, not universal, better to say, trends than specific rules. If the oil price goes down, let’s say, less than 50 dollars per barrel, then the elite of this country begin speaking about the reforms. Because in that case, you cannot sit on the oil pipe and without specifically giving a hard time to your brain, feed your citizens. You must turn on the economic mechanisms. On what basis are they operating in the case of market relations? Apparently, on people’s personal initiative and creative approaches.
It is here that the insincere or even sincere desire to “undergo reforms” faces the “brutal reality”. The example of the Soviet Union and Russia is the most remarkable. Is it possible to dismantle the oil-driven economic system without touching the dictatorship political regime. Gorbachev’s example did not yield a positive outcome, apparently, first of all because his implemented reforms were not thoroughly thought-out and planned. Putin, of course, takes this experience into account if ever he decides to change anything.
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While it is clear that Russia is facing such a necessity. Of course, it would be ideal if Russia’s leadership would have thought about it when the oil price was 120 dollars. But at that time, perhaps, there was some kind of euphoria, and the Pharaoh did not have a consultant like Joseph to advise the 12 abundant years will be followed by “feeble” years with the same duration. But unlike the Ancient Egypt, today, keeping money in the “sack” is not enough, it should “work” and be invested in the development of the technology, which was not done in Russia because of numerous, including also subjective reasons.
Today, the economists working with the Kremlin: Gref, Kudrin and Ulyukayev, acknowledging that their countries suffered another defeat in the war for technologies, in all cases, they recommend at least for now when the oil price is less than 30 dollars to change the economic policy. The economists, of course, are true, but the decision should be made by Putin. Here come the same question of whether it is possible to improve the economy without changing the political regime and without creating a more open political system. And whether the regime change does not threat Putin. Eventually, in addition to everything, there is also another question of whether the society is ready for such changes, the society that has continuously “eating the oil money.”
Is there an alternative in Russia to the reforms? Of course, there is. Imperialist unsubstantiated ambitions, manufacture sale and supply of weapons, incitement and involvement in local wars. This, certainly, does not improve Russia’s economic situation because it means wasting the available scarce resources rather than a technological progress. But such “alternative” raises the people’s military and patriotic spirit, we are hungry but armed because we are surrounded by enemies.
In short, according to one of the Murphy’s laws, there is no situation that cannot be made worse.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN,
Aravot daily
