Economist Gagik Minasyan thinks that Georgia’s GDP index is relatively high, as it is not imposed to “blockade” by any of its neighbors
“Political realities, developments do not comply with the methodology used to conduct economic forecasts. For example, who could tell that the “Su-24″ would be downed or Shiite clergyman would be or not?” said NA RPA MP and economist Gagik Minasyan, in response to the question of “Aravot” about the growth of poverty in percentage in Armenia in 2016 and the reduction of transfers in percentage. Mr. Minasyan was reluctant to make a forecast about any indicator because the economic situation, in his opinion, will go up and down due to political reasons.
We asked Gagik Minasyan that in the case of 2.2% of GDP which was forecast by the World Bank on January 6 for this year, which was also confirmed and recorded by the responsible of our budget, so even in this case, it cannot predict who much the poverty will grow, Mr. Minasyan said that he cannot answer this question anyway. Note that last year-end, starting from the Prime Minister up to the responsible of a number of spheres, promised that driven by the geopolitical situation, the poverty in our country will grow. Gagik Minasyan said that he is not sure that the World Bank published data reflects the Russia-Ukraine and Russia-Turkey relations, the fall or rise in oil prices and the relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Note that according to World Bank data, in 2016. Belarus will have a 0.5 percent of gross domestic product. Kazakhstan’s GDP will be 1.1 percent. We asked Mr. Minasyan how such indexes of GDP in these two countries of EaEU will affect the EaEU-member Armenia’s economy and whether the negative impacts in these countries will leave their imprint on us. Mr. Minasyan was convinced that Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union is unequivocally having a positive impact as “the fact of becoming a member of the Eurasian Economic Union gives us additional positive opportunities.”
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As for the economic situation in Belarus and Kazakhstan, Gagik Minasyan opines that our main partner is of the Russian Federation, and our commodity turnover with the above two countries compared with Russia is extremely small, “Our commodity turnover, our economic ties and remittances with Russia are and will be, irrespective of whether we would be an EaEU member or not. Since they tend to have negative developments, we would have had the negative developments, be an EaEU member or not.” To our question that the World Bank has forecast 3% GDP for Georgia instead of 2.5 percent last year, so whether this is due to the fact that Georgia is not an EaEU member, Mr. Minasyan said, no.
In his words, relatively high index of GDP in Georgia was mainly due to the fact that Georgia was not imposed to “blockade” by any of its neighboring countries, “No business entity investing in Georgia thinks that tomorrow Georgia will be in a war.” To our question that one of the reasons might be that our neighbor Georgia is running a more pro-European and pro-American economic politics, Mr. Minasyan said, “Every decision has its price and the direction by which Georgia went, it passed thru losses and gains. Incidentally, now, the politics implemented by Georgia is more balanced than the moves implemented 7-8 years ago resulting in irreversible losses, and in this sense, the components of Georgia’s economic growth are as such, for which there are no grounds in Armenia. Georgia is a transit country for such countries as Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it already gives great opportunities for development.”
As Gagik Minasyan said, Georgia is also trying to enlarge its opportunities via diversification, “First of all, the matter is about the gas which it receives only from Azerbaijan and now it wants to receive gas from Iran too.” To our observation that the World Bank has forecast low index of GDP for Azerbaijan – 0.8 percent, so what Armenia will benefit or lose from this index, Mr. Minasyan said, “Such a total country like Azerbaijan will try to create an effect of an external enemy to divert the public attention from domestic problems.” In other words, this year too, as Gagik Minasyan is convinced, we would have tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. “We need to be prepared for it as appropriate.” The economist could not forecast whether Azerbaijan will maintain the growth rate of GDP under such a situation or not, however, he is certain that Azerbaijan will not allow reduction of expenses for the army.
Lusine BUDAGHYAN “Aravot” daily
