Interview with the expert of the Armenian Center for Democracy, Security and Development Marta Ayvazyan
– January 16, the Launching day, is a “historic” day for Iran – all UN Security Council sanctions and some of the EU and the US imposed sanctions are lifted. Now, Iran is signing impressive deals with Western countries. Recently, Iran and China negotiated. What are the possibilities of Iran’s return to the international political arena for Armenia?
– January 16 was a historic and long-awaited day not only for Iran but generally for all those who are involved in the international relations. It was the beginning of significant geopolitical changes and will have great consequences for the economic and political development in our region as well as the presence of foreign forces in our immediate environment and the distribution of their impacts. Suffice to keep track of the volume of the sequence of visits by the state president, who has an exclusive history of statehood, solid religious ideological foundation and deep traditions, as well as the content and all manifestations of respect by which these visits and meetings are accompanied, and the weight and significance of what happened will become clear.
From now on, Iran will seek to regain its place in the international political and economic platform and above all, in the global energy-carriers market which will take place at the expense of other oil and gas producing states. Only previously frozen financial assets because of the sanctions which now are available for the Iran’s economy, by various estimates, amounts to 30-60 billion dollars. Plus those hundreds of billions of international transactions that have been concluded and yet to be concluded with Iran, will provide huge financial resources as well as a flow of advanced western technologies to Iran and in the near future, they will restore its former economic capacity and, naturally, the political weight.
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In the context of all these processes, on the one hand, Armenia’s significance as a neighboring and friendly country of Iran is growing, on the other hand, new prospects are opening up for us and huge opportunities are handed to us in the spheres of economy and political, as well as in the state and private levels, starting from the involvement of our companies and experts in the economic processes going on in Iran and ended by the transit of Iranian gas through the territory of Armenia and import of cheap energy carriers, and it would be the biggest mistake once again to neglect our state interest and not to get the use of all of this.
– Iran came up with the mediation offer on Nagorno-Karabakh issue in a completely different status in comparison to the attempts of previous years. Rumors are circulated that Armenia may become a transit country for Iranian gas to export to Georgia. As you known, Georgia is in the process of negotiating with “Gazprom”. Will Russia reconcile with this advancement of Iran? Will Iran-Russia interests in our region not begin conflicting at some point?
– Iran’s and Russia’s interests are already conflicting and not only in our region. This refers to the processes taking place in the global energy-carriers market, including Iran’s full return to the market in the near future, as well as to the rapid enhancement of Iran’s role and influence in our region, which also promotes to the day-by-day growing and deepening cooperation with Iran and the West. Obvious, these processes will lead to significant quality and quantity increase of presence in our region, particularly in the Western economic and political presence. And although all of this is contrary to Russia’s interests, Russia will have to put up with the advancement of Iran as well as with the changes in the economic and political environment.
As for Iran’s possible mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement process, then to estimate this issue, we need to consider a number of factors, particularly the fact that Iran is a land with enormous potential and political rating whose views can be decisive in many cases, it is Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s direct bordering neighbor unlike Russia, it is interested in establishing peace and stability in the region and especially near its borders, which is also necessary for Armenia, and this issue gains importance in the far-away context of making Armenia a country of Iranian gas transit to Europe. These factors allow us to assume that Iran’s involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process can have a positive impact. As for the format of this involvement and the combination or coordination of Iran’s mediation with the Minsk Group, then in the case of the consent and appropriate political decision by all parties involved, it is an easily soluble problem.
– The adoption of the reports by British rapporteur Robert Walter failed in the PACE while the report by Bosnia delegate Milica Marković with the heading of “The inhabitants of frontier regions of Azerbaijan are deliberately deprived of water” was adopted. Firstly, to what extent did the failure of the first report contribute to the OSCE Minsk Group’s posture? The discussion is underway about the voting of the delegates of Ukraine and Georgia for this resolution who mainly defended Azerbaijan. How could Armenia receive at least an abstained vote from these countries?
– I assume that the OSCE Minsk Group’s posture had some positive influence. But let’s not forget also that in addition to MG statements, a respective diplomatic task is also going on at the Foreign Ministry’s levels.
As for the voting issue, Armenia, currently being for Georgia’s and Ukraine’s hostile country Russia’s puppet, is consistently voting in all international instances in favor of resolutions against Georgia and Ukraine or against the respective resolutions presented by Georgia. No need to forget that Georgia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan are the GUAM member states and are cooperating in the frames of this organization too. Therefore, we can expect a change in the snapshot of voting by Ukraine and Georgia only in the case of certain review of our foreign political course and in the case of its conformity with the interests of Armenia.
The fact that Armenia’s and generally, any state’s interests do not absolutely imply stipulating its relations particularly with the immediate neighbors by the interests of the third state, it is not a subject of discussion at all. But, alas, Armenia is often guided by the principle of the opposite.
– International Criminal Court in The Hague commences the investigation of war crimes during the Russian-Georgian war in 2008. According to the decision made by the three members of the court, Gambian lawyer Fatou Bensouda will be the head of the investigative group, who will be engaged in the search for evidence of the violations of the civilians’ rights. A few days ago, the world’s attention was focused on the former Russian intelligence officer Alexander Litvinenko’s case who died in London, on November 23, 2006. The final report on the British investigation on his death concluded that the Russian government is standing behind the death of Litvinenko and that Russian President Vladimir Putin, apparently, has approved the commitment of Litvinenko’s murder. What are the consequences of these processes? Can we conclude that the West is changing the rules of the game and moves the question of Putin’s future to another field?
– The launch of investigating Russian-Georgian war at the international instances is still the first sign. In the near future, it will be followed by a number of international investigations related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the annexation of Crimea. This is a logical and expected process, first of all, conditioned by the methods of running a foreign policy associated with Russian force’s illegal actions in the recent years and by such violations of the international law such as the annexation of the territory of another state.
It is another question when it comes to the publication of the British investigation conclusion about RF president’s possible involvement in Litvinenko’s murder, which adds a new flavor to the current tense relations between Russia and the West, more specifically, between Vladimir Putin and the West. This is more visible in the background of Iran president’s visit to Europe. This is not only a significant and painful blow to Russian president’s status and his pride but also may be qualified as a warning or hint that it is the time to review some edges of Russian foreign politics, otherwise it is not excluded to call the RF President to answer at the court, or a signal that indicates that in the case of the absence of changes, V. Putin’s presidency may come to an end.
– What are the consequences of the escalation in Russian-Turkish relations on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh? On the one hand, Azerbaijan is in a not enviable situation, the relations with the West are quite complex, on the other hand, the “brotherly” Turkey and Russia are not reconciling. What consequences is the situation fraught with for us?
– In the case of any changes in the Russia-Turkey relations, both positive and negative, Armenia and, in particular, Nagorno-Karabakh’s conflict settlement issue, irrespective of our desires and interests, again becomes a subject for speculation and trade. It is conditioned by Armenia’s totally dependent and subjugated situation from Russia, both economically and particularly politically. In this context, we are much more vulnerable than Azerbaijan.
Under the current tension, there is a probability that manipulating all possible factors and problems and using all levers, including the Russian military base deployed in Gyumri, Russia, and Turkey either will try to involve Armenia in this-or-that not desired processes or activities for us, or will regulate their ongoing problems and will reach agreement at the expense of the interests and territories of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Emma GABRIELYAN,
“Aravot” daily
