“Still Armenia’s economic benefit in the light of accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) is not clearly estimated, and many analysts and RA citizens expect to see evident positive results,” says the Chairman of the Republican Union of Employers of Armenia, an economist, Gagik Makaryan, who under the initiative of the Armenian Institute for International and Security Affairs, had prepared the report “RA Economy-2015. The impact and trends of the EaEU and other factors for 2016”.
According to him, first it is important to assess in advance Armenia’s economic cooperation with the Customs Union member states as of September 2013, and what indicators of foreign trade were registered with these countries for this period. “It should be noted that as in 2013 so as until now, the European Union (EU) remains the first foreign trading partner for Armenia (27%) while the Russian Federation (RF) – the second (about 24%). As Belarus and Kazakhstan have no significant role in Armenia’s foreign trade (Armenia’s foreign trade with Belarus amounts to 0.8% and with Kazakhstan – 0.2%), therefore within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, Russia will have a decisive importance and will still have in the coming years.
In other words, Armenia’s economy and social state definitely will be conditioned by Russia’s economic situation, especially for the volumes of export from Armenia to Russia, as well as in the light of temporary labor migrants or the remittances transferred by them to their families. Armenia’s economic indicators for 2015 are not yet fully summarized, but the available data allow us to make certain judgments and final conclusions,” says Gagik Makaryan. Studying Armenia’s economic situation, Gagik Makaryan, referring to the 2015 economic activity index (EAI), which for the period of January-November amounted to 102.9%, says that all major sectors of Armenia contributed to the growth of EAI, with the exception of the indicators for construction and trade turnover, which fell by 3.1% and 7.1%, respectively.
Naturally, it is right to conclude that the decrease in trade indicator was conditioned by 4 main factors: the reduction in the number of population due to migration, the decline in the purchasing power of population due to the reduction in the volume of foreign remittances, which was reduced by 37.2% for January-November months in 2015 as compared to the same period last year. By the way, the volume of remittances from Russia for the same period has decreased by 43.4 percent. Poverty is still a high level, which according to official data, is 30%, and according to the data by some analysts, it is about 60% in urban communities and in the event of unequal competitive conditions of SMEs and micro-enterprises, and as a result, the key sectors of the economy cease to operate.
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Gagik Makaryan’s report also addresses the consequences of deterioration of Russia’s economy on the economy of our country. “The main problems that are already visible starting from 2014 and which were further emphasized in 2015 in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union are as follows: reduction of RA foreign trade volume with Russia and the EaEU member states (Belarus and Kazakhstan); as a result of external factors and Russia weakening economy, the economic situation in Belarus and Kazakhstan has also worsened; the tendency of decrease in the number of labor migrants to Russia; the reduction in remittances by labor migrants from Russia to Armenia. In 2015, it decreased by nearly 43 percent; social impact, as a result of deterioration of Russia’s economic situation, there is a risk that the unemployment will grow and the number of poor will grow in Armenia,” commented Mr. Makaryan.
As to what Iran’s cooperation will give to our country, Gagik Makaryan opines that Iran can create a balance in the region, especially in terms of the Turkish-Azerbaijani current tandem and Turkey-Russia conflict. In addition, for some foreign investment in Iran and the industrial development projects, Armenia’s territory can become a suitable platform for the establishment of management offices to discuss and agree on initial and further cooperation, “Iran’s natural raw materials and energy carriers can be used for the development of various sectors of RA economy or to exports to other countries thru the territory of Armenia, particularly to Georgia and Russia. The lifting of sanctions against Iran will make this country more transparent, and the high duties on the imported goods to Iran will be reduced, which will make it more convenient to export goods from other countries, including from Armenia to Iran.”
Private journalist,
“Aravot” daily
