In 2016, the economic year in Armenia, at least according to data released by the National Statistical Service, is launching by high activeness. By the operative data released yesterday by the National Statistical Service, Armenia’s economic activeness was 5.5% in January. For comparison, recall that in January 2015, the economic activeness amounted to 2.1 percent. It turns out that despite all professional and logical forecast that this year is going to be difficult in terms of financial-economical, the year in Armenia begins with an economic boom. Judging from the data published by the statistic service, an unprecedented high growth was registered in the sphere of industry. It reaches 15.7%. It is noteworthy that this growth rate is registered in the beginning of the year under not so much favorable situation created in the foreign sector. As you know, the price of raw materials remains incomparably low in the world market.
Recently, one ton of copper varies from 43-46 thousand dollars. It is at least 1.2 thousand less than the indicator of last year for the same period. The problem with sales have significantly increased also with the key partner countries and primarily with Russia. The sharp devaluation of the ruble in the beginning of the year, willy-nilly, will affect the competitiveness of the Armenian goods in the Russian market. Under these conditions, however, there is a serious growth in the industry. Note that in January, last year, the manifestations in this sector of the economy were negative. More than 6 percent fall was reported. Energy and construction significantly contributed to high activeness observed in the first month of the year. In the energy sector, there was an increase of 5.2 percent while in the construction sector- 5.1 percent. Economist Tatul Manaseryan, in an interview with Aravot.am, talking on this, said that the NSS data totally fit in the framework of the economy and economic logic. Tatul Manaseryan opines that there are two substantiations: the challenges in last year’s economy and the poor forecasts made the businesses entities to be more restrained but since the year ended with a 3.3% economic growth, it is already encouraging. “In addition, there were programs that were supposed to be implemented right since 2016. This inspires hope and fully coincides with my optimism. I think that we are still far away from using our human, financial and other resources correctly, but it is very important that we look at the economy positively charged,” said Tatul Manaseryan.
NSS indicators are so far modest in agriculture. Compared with the same period of last year, a growth of 1.5% is reported. Although, foreign trade turnover continued to decline, nevertheless, there are also positive trends. I am talking, in particular, about the manifestations occurred in the sector of export. In January, a 5.6 percent more goods were exported from Armenia. Converted into money, it amounts to USD 89 million. The decline in foreign commodity turnover was due to exclusively the reduction of import. The negative difference as compared to last year was USD 44 million. In January of this year, the imports amounted to USD 153 million. The weakening of the Russian ruble led to the decline in customs values of various goods imported from this market. In contrast to the 13.8 percent fall in foreign trade turnover, the domestic trade has decreased by 2.7%. In other words, the domestic consumption continued to decline. Our interlocutor believes that the main factor influencing on it are the foreign transfers, which continue to fall. Today, the business-lawmakers in the parliament, however, are reluctant to talk about the NSS data, reasoning that they are not familiar with them. Business-lawmakers consider it too early to give an assessment but hope that they will move on with a positive course.
Nelly GRIGORYAN
