“Moscow is against the initiatives of exercising international mechanisms for investigating the cease-fire violations”
The efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs are recently aimed at easing the tension on the contact line and making the situation controllable. In an interview with “Aravot,” such an opinion was made by the Senior Analyst of the Center for Regional Studies, Ambassador of the President of Armenia on Special Missions (1992-95), Head of Armenia’s National Security Service (1994-95), David Shahnazaryan.
Ambassador of the President of Armenia on Special Missions (1992-95), Head of Armenia’s National Security Service (1994-95), David Shahnazaryan
“On December 19, after the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Bern, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs emphasized in their statement that the Presidents expressed their support in the Co-Chairs’ ongoing work on proposals regarding measures to reduce the risk of violence along the Line of Contact and Armenia-Azerbaijan border, including an investigation mechanism. In particular, the Co-chairs offered: 1) to install technical equipment lengthways the line of contact, which will enable to set up a control by reporting the ceasefire violations at the line of contact, 2) to expand the OSCE observation mission, 3) to work on the clear mechanisms for investigating the ceasefire violations. It is known that Yerevan officially has accepted the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs’ recommendations while Baku officially does not recognize them. At the same time, Azerbaijan has been constantly taking steps recently to fail the OSCE MG format and transfer the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement to other international platforms,” said David Shahnazaryan, adding that the one who pushes the idea of exercising mechanisms to examine the incidents on the border and in the contact line is the OSCE Minsk Group American Co-chair James Warlick.
David Shahnazaryan draws attention to the latest initiative officially voiced from Baku pertaining to the need for expansion of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairmanship, which was recently voiced by Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov, noting that the participation of all OSCE Minsk Group member states in the settlement talks will enhance the Azerbaijani diplomatic stance. “The use of the full format of the Minsk Group may become an additional tool of pressure used against Armenia by the international community. I think that, for example, the activities and the role of Germany, Sweden and Turkey in the Minsk Group can be more effective,” noted Azimov.
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On March 10, the next day after the Sargsyan-Putin talks, Russian President’s Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov presented an explanation on the topic of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement to TASS, saying, “The solution to Karabakh conflict can only be found by its sides, and not by international mediators. However, Russia works consistently in international formats to facilitate such a solution. Indeed, being a responsible participant to an ongoing international format, Russia continues to work consistently to resolve the Karabakh conflict. But the final solution, final initiatives should be brought forward only by the parties themselves. Neither international mediators nor Russia can resolve the conflict on behalf of Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
Referring to the aforementioned comments by the Kremlin spokesperson, David Shahnazaryan said, “It is said that the settlement is in the hands of the parties rather than the mediators. Usually, such statements are made by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship in the period when there was an emphasized passivity in the process the negotiation and the latter were almost is a deadlock. While, now, the OSCE Minsk Group has a specific plan, therefore, the Kremlin’s statement once again shows that it is against the measurements proposed by the mediators – to exercise the idea of using investigations mechanism against the cease-fire violations into life. Peskov’s next observation is more than strange when he mentioned about “the existing international formats” for the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The whole statement does not mention about the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship. What are we talking about the “international format” when the US, NATO, Germany also as an OSCE chairing country, countered Baku’s officially consistent efforts on changing the format of the OSCE Minsk Group, also recently High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, Federica Mogherini, clearly emphasized that the only platform for the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship, which all of them fully support and in fact, no other international body for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict exists. Peskov’s statement affirms that Russia supports the efforts of Azerbaijan aimed at dismantling the OSCE MG Co-chairs format or, at least, expanding it.”
According to David Shahnazaryan, the next remarkable moment in the RF Presidential Spokesperson’s statement is that he states that Russia is consistently working to support such a settlement in international formats. “It is obvious that now it is not realistic to speak about the original settlement. The key problem for the geopolitical and regional developments that is now laid before them by the OSCE Minsk Group and, in particular, the United States, is the control of the conflict not to allow a new tension. In other words, with this statement, RF pursues a goal to record that it is going to continue its politics which it has already adopted before that, in other words, constantly trying to resist the currently implemented efforts by the OSCE Minsk co-chairs. Such a politics led by Russia directly stems from the Azerbaijani interests.”
David Shahnazaryan thinks that the “full stop” in RF Presidential Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s statement is the following wording, “final solution, final initiatives should be brought forward only by the parties themselves.” “This is just a statement that Russia is against the US efforts for exercising investigations mechanism in the contact line, the implementation of which stems from Armenia’s interests. Hence, we can conclude the following: certain pressures are applied against Azerbaijan for Baku to agree to the steps taken by the United States aimed at the efficiency of maintaining ceasefire regime. Under these conditions when Russia in its turn is also under heavy international pressure, Moscow is trying to take over the role of a ring buoy for Azerbaijan. Russia’s current posture, I think, is aimed at the US, the upcoming visit of Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev, who will attend the fourth summit on nuclear security issues, in the framework of which, according to some reports, the US is seeking to organize a Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting. It is clear that Aliyev was invited to the US not for the presenting an award for the establishment of democracy in Azerbaijan, and its efforts in protection of human rights but to use certain pressures not only on demanding to respect these principles but for Aliyev to agrees to the OSCE Minsk Group proposal – about exercising mechanisms for investigation in the contact line.”
David Shahnazaryan considers the fact noteworthy that on December 19, after the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Bern, even after the statement spread out by the Co-chairs, Russia has not made any statement in support of the OSCE Minsk Group offer, “After the recent Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting, both Lavrov and Karasin gave interviews, but they did not even consider it necessary to address the specific recommendations for the establishment of international mechanism to investigate border incidents. Moscow actually proves that it is against these initiatives and supports the denial policy of Azerbaijan with its posture. The Kremlin, in fact, is sending a message thru Peskov’s statement to Azerbaijani President Aliyev not to succumb to the pressures of the Washington in the US in the direction to strengthen the cease-fire. With this move, Moscow simply encourages Azerbaijan to continue its lawless policy adopted in recent years – by provoking tension and clashes in the contact line, militant rhetoric and continuing transactions of arms procurement.”
David Shahnazaryan is sure that Moscow has serious concerns and even anxiety over the upcoming Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev visit to Washington and thereby, explains the steps taken in recent weeks by Moscow to deepen political and military-technical on-going cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan. Our interlocutor pointed out Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin’s and Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin’s visits to Baku. Russia, according to Shahnazaryan, will continue arming Azerbaijan. “As Peskov’s statement was made the next day of Serzh Sargsyan’s and Vladimir Putin’s meeting, one can assume that Putin has also discussed these issues in detail with Serzh Sargsyan,” said D. Shahnazaryan.
EMMA GABRIELYAN, “Aravot” Daily
