Georgian political expert
analyzes geopolitical events
EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner, Federica Mogherini, announced about the five principles on Russia unanimously adopted by the foreign ministers of the EU countries. Some time later, the main news of the international media reported that Russia is withdrawing it air forces from Syria. Are these events associated with each other, and what consequences they will they have in our region too. Aravot.am presents a glance from Tbilisi, we talk with the Georgian political expert Gela Vasadze about this. “In reality, the European Union did not say anything new, it just laid down some conditions before Russia. It is another matter that those conditions were not formulated until now, today they are formulated and formulated with the help of the EU foreign affairs commissioner,” Georgian political expert says.
Passing over the EU declared principles, Mr. Vasadze notes that the first principle – the fulfilment of the Minsk agreements on Russia – are unrealizable. “The fulfilment of the Minsk agreement is related to the Ukrainian issue and this issue is impossible to resolve because it is impossible to return Russia to the rank of civilized countries,” says Mr. Vasadze. He draws attention to the second principle, which stipulates that Russia must improve its relations with the East and the neighboring countries. “It’s probably more about the post-Soviet states, and here, we must pay attention to the point that the European Union is closely watching on how Russia behaves itself there, which it had not done before. The European Union will be following on what internal problems Russia causes in its relations with these countries,” – says Mr. Vasadze, adding, – “this is also important for Armenia because we know what a serious interference Russia has in the domestic politics of Armenia. I think that the European Union is a full-fledged player in the post-Soviet states and will not allow Russia to make other countries be dependent.” Georgian political expert notes that these are the conditions under which the European Union will be willing to enter into a dialogue with Russia. He says that Russia may fulfill some of these conditions, as to how the European Union will behave in that case, it is difficult to predict because it is in the state of realpolitik. “Europe is worded itself very well about what it expects from Russia, and even the energy security threats are for it. Energy threats have always been from Europe, but this time, it was made clear that they will no longer tolerate,” says Mr. Vasadze.
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According to him, the European Union and other institutions have already caused a blow to Russia. Now, Russia’s economy has also appeared in a difficult situation, therefore, the European Union thinks that it can dictate to Russia what it wanted. “Today, the European Union thinks that it can dictate what it wants, given the situation in Russia with regard to the exercised sanctions. The sanctions had an impact, therefore, Russia will have to react.”
Addressing the other important event of the same day – the withdrawal of Russian air forces from Syria, our interlocutor says, “I do not think they are associated with each other. I am not thinking like many other analysts who say that this step by Russia was unexpected. I believe that the agreements with Syria have been a week ago when they were agreeing to the ceasefire with the United States and Russia. I think that this was one of the most important points of the agreement. In my opinion, this was an agreement between Putin and Obama, about which, possibly, many high-rank officials in Russia were even unaware of. As to the level of the agreement, it is probably known only to the leaders of those states,” says Vasadze. He believes that Russia, originally, as a state should not be involved in the Syrian matter.
Speaking of the country’s leadership, the Georgian expert said, “They have such criteria and ideas that are different from those of the civilized world but it is already their own perception of the world.” Mr. Vasadzen is sure that the withdrawal of the Russian troops is a serious defeat for Putin, “Because the goals set were not fulfilled. Entering military forces in Syria, Putin aimed to enhance his role in the international platform, he wanted to reckon with him and conduct negotiations with him. But he did not reach his goal and received what received – only a cold war with Europe, nothing else.”
Hripsime HOVHANNISYAN,
Photo from Gela Vasadze’s Facebook page
“Aravot” Daily
