Ukrainian expert Sergey Gerasimchuk analyzes the recent geopolitical events
EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Federica Mogherini proclaimed the five principles on Russia unanimously adopted by the foreign ministers of the EU countries. Some time later, there was a heading in the main news feed of the international media that Russia is withdrawing its air force from Syria. Are these events connected with each other, and what are the consequences in our region? Aravot.am presents a glance from Kiev. We talked to the political expert of Ukraine, Sergey Gerasimchuk, on this.
According to our interlocutor, the wording of the five principles by the EU means that Russian Federation is no longer able, for example, to fail the fulfillment of its commitments regarding Ukraine. “The EU has clearly divided: Ukraine and Russia should take on these principles and incidentally, the relations with Russia will not improve if the commitments with Ukraine are not fulfilled,” – says Mr. Gerasimchuk.
He also refers to the second principle adopted by the EU countries, which enshrines the establishment of strong relations with the Eastern countries, “The European Union made it clear that now it will already develop its relations with its Eastern partners, moreover, the matter was not only about the Eastern Partnership countries but also the countries located in the Central Asia, which earlier was no so,” – says Ukrainian political expert, adding, – If until now, these states were under the influence of Russia, now, the European Union clearly stated that it wants to become one of the players in this zone. This was a signal aimed not so much at Russia as at China, a signal that the EU is ready to work with Central Asia. And since China is a key player in the Central Asia, the EU is also ready to work with it. It is also a signal to the Turkish world as we know that the EU is conducting negotiations with Turkey, we know that many states in the Central Asia have major Turkish impacts. And so, the EU said that it is ready to work both with Turkey and the states that are in a friendly relationship with Turkey.” Mr. Gerasimchuk also draws attention on the last principle which states that the EU will support the civil society for the establishment of contacts between the youth of Russia and the EU, “This shows that despite the Russian Federation has disappointed the European Union but the latter is ready to make investments in Russia for solving social problems.”
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Ukrainian expert notes that the EU does no longer perceive Russia as a close partner, it is also made clear to the Caucasus countries. “The European Union is establishing relations with Russia only on those aspects that refer to the current situation in Syria, the international terrorism. At the same time, the EU suggests resuming the relations with the Eastern Partnership countries, realizing that they also have other interests. At this point, we see a formation of certain relationships with Belarus and Georgia. Unfortunately, an unclear situation has been created in the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Here, I think, everything depends on the leaders of these countries, – says Mr. Gerasimchuk, – In addition, Armenia is connected with Russia with many ties: economic and security. In this context, one gets an impression that the Armenian elite are not so particularly worried. On the other hand, the European Union, despite its particular assertiveness, can always suggest new cooperation formats. And Armenia should think about this cooperation.”
Mr. Gerasimchuk notes that now, Yerevan is also not particularly admired by the incidents going on today in Ukraine but notes that the problems are different, in addition, there was a real military conflict there that was provoked by Russia. “In Yerevan, it is said that if you do not join Russia, roughly speaking, Russia will give Armenia to Azerbaijan. I’m also not sure on this because if Russia limits its presence in Armenia, then Armenia will not remain in an uninhabited island with Azerbaijan. The European Union and the United States have begun to influence on Russia and were able to limit Russia’s interference in Ukraine (we are talking about the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine but we no longer are talking about the military conflict, the conflict is frozen.) God forbid if such a problem arises in Armenia, then I think that neither the EU nor the US and the OSCE will not allow the escalation of the conflict. And it is important that now OSCE is chaired by Germany, who is who, but Germany will never want an escalation of the conflict.”
Mr. Gerasimchuk does not connect the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria with the above-mentioned move by the European Union. “First and foremost, the withdrawal of Russian troops is connected with the Russian-American treaty. The EU is not so much involved in this conflict, – says our interlocutor and notes, – on the other hand, the European Union emphasized that it is ready to cooperate with Russia on the Syria issue. Putin’s decision can be perceives as a certain reverence to the EU.”
Hripsime HOVHANNISYAN,
“Aravot” daily
