Exactly one month ago, when it was announced that Iran and Georgia are negotiating on the transit of Iranian gas to Georgia via Armenia, our society was expecting to see the developments. Last month, as reported by the Russian news agency TACC, Georgian Deputy Prime Minister, as well as Minister of Energy, Kakha Kaladze visited Tehran to discuss the issue of the transfer of Iranian gas to Georgia. In the negotiations, as the Head of the National Iranian Gas Company, Alireza Kamel, said the parties discussed the issue of exporting 200 million cubic meters of gas produced in Iran to Georgia via Armenia.
The Iranian side has said that it is expected to start the gas export to Georgia after March 21. Alireza Kamel also noted that if the economic feasibility of the transaction is proved by the experience, they will already discuss the mid-term and long-term projects of exporting gas to Georgia but prior to implementing this option of exporting Iranian gas, Georgia must ask for a permission from Armenia for the gas transit. During this one month, nothing was decided whether Armenia will be a gas transit country and whether Georgia has applied to the Government of Armenia. It seems this issue is slightly becoming clear.
After the government session, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Levon Yolyan, in an interview with the reporters, assured that a meeting will take place on April 11, in Tbilisi, between the Energy Ministers of Armenia, Georgia, Iran and Russia. During this meeting, according to Yolyan, the issue of transition of the Iranian gas to Georgia via Armenia will be resolved. Mr. Yolyan said, “Quite active works are underway to more actively involve the territory of Armenia, the energy sector in all regional issues. Negotiations on energy and gas are underway, working meetings are held and it is clear that money for the transit is approved, money will go to the budget not only for gas but also for energy.”
While our people were planning to leave for Tbilisi, a Georgia-Azerbaijan gas agreement has already been signed, and Armenia and Iran possibly will come out of this gas game. “Aravot” asked the Minister to give details about the negotiations of whether Armenia has a chance to become a gas transit country and if so, how much our country will benefit financially, and how much the “Gazprom” benefit will be. But Yolyan did not answer our question, reasoning that it is not appropriate to disclose the details of the negotiations. Whereas, note that this is the matter and the theme around which even minor developments, both positive and negative, must be disclosed to the public as it is very important to know how strong and demanding are the positions of the representatives of Armenia in these negotiations.
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Having the known bitter experience of the gas agreement which was a great burden for our population and not useful to the society, it can be said that it was kept secret until the last moment, and irrespective of the public protests, it was passed by the National Assembly. Now, having this in mind, to put it mildly, we have a lesson learned that it might happen that the negotiations are over by ousting Armenia of the gas transit, or even if it is successful, then, let’s say, in favor of the “Gazprom” and pennies will go to our state budget for the gas transit. Hayk Gevorgyan, the economic commentator for “Haykakan Zhamanak” daily, is not confident that Armenia will greatly benefit from these negotiations. In an interview with “Aravot” Daily, Hayk Gevorgyan said that now it is difficult to tell the terms of the gas transit, “If of course, the negotiations end successfully which, to put it mildly, I doubt. But even if it is successful, then out of the mentioned four countries, Armenia will receive the minimum benefit because the gas will be moved by one gas system that is fully owned by the “Gazprom”. The economic commentator recalled the experience with Iran-Armenia gas pipeline obtained by the “Gazprom” years ago, “This did not have any economic feasibility, there was no logic in this transaction because the gas was to come to Yerevan TPP thru this pipeline, turned into electricity and then moved to Iran: by 1/3 ratio.” Gevorgyan noted that this transaction actually had a political feasibility and right for the current cases when Iran wanted to export gas to Georgia via Armenia.
ANC member and economist Vahagn Khachatryan, in an interview with us expressed an opinion that years ago, Armenia signed a gas agreement and was deprived of the opportunity to do anything independently, “We lost the chance when the gas pipeline was built 2 times smaller in 2004, when we refused to build the 5th energy block of Hrazdan with Persian funds, we were deprived of all the opportunities, now, we are now reaping the fruits.” The economist noted that the talks on the transit of the Iranian gas to Georgia through Armenia are kicked off when there was no gas agreement between Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Note that in early March, Georgia and Azerbaijan signed an agreement by which Azerbaijan will fully meet the demand for gas for Georgia. Georgia will receive an additional 500 million cubic meters of gas from Azerbaijan. Georgian Energy Minister, Kakha Kaladze, announced that Georgia has no more need to obtain additional volumes of natural gas, neither from Russia nor from Iran. “They will meet in Tbilisi in April, will talk and then will tell us that nothing worked out,” said Vahagn Khachatryan referring to the upcoming gas meeting. And since Yolyan did not provide any details about the talks, we have to make assumptions and hope to benefit from the transit of at least energy at the meetings in Tbilisi.
Recall that Kakha Kaladze has said in Iran that Georgia has the opportunity to supply electricity to Iran through Armenia, and in winter, when Georgia’s electricity consumption reaches the maximum, they can import electricity from Iran through the territory of Armenia.
Nelly BABAYAN,
“Aravot” daily
